February 2024 jobs report: 275,000 jobs added, higher than forecast

The US economy added 275, 000 jobs in February, signaling continued strength in the labor market.

Key takeaways

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the US economy added 275, 000 jobs in February.
• The unemployment rate rose to 3. 9% in February, the highest since January 2022.
• Employment gains in the construction, retail and food sectors contributed to February's unexpected job gains.
• The labor market is showing signs of modest growth, but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said policymakers need to see more evidence that job growth is slowing to keep inflation in check.

John Waite

Outpacing expectations

The US labor market added 275, 000 jobs in February, beating consensus expectations and upping January's gain of 229, 000. 1 Despite high interest rates, high inflation, and slowing economic performance, the labor market remains strong.

Although employment numbers beat expectations, other indicators suggest a slowdown in the labor market. Wage growth in December and January was revised down sharply, the unemployment rate rose, and wage growth was lower than expected. The labor market balance continues to recover, but it is too late for the Fed.

Economic indicators suggest that job growth will slow in the coming quarters, leading to lower inflation. With unemployment at its highest level in two years and wage growth fairly weak, there is now less reason to fear that the labor market recovery will lead to higher inflation again.

Industry breakdown

Wage increases in February were widespread across many sectors of the economy. Nearly three-quarters of the job gains were in the health care, leisure and hospitality, and government sectors. The health care and education sector added 85, 000 jobs, the leisure and hospitality sector added 58, 000 jobs, and the government sector added 52, 000 jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Business Sentiment Index further boosted wage growth as more industries reported job gains.

Employment in the financial and construction industries also increased, rising by 19. Construction employment increased, but was offset by a decline in manufacturing. Retail employment increased by 19, 000, transportation increased by 29, 000, and professional, business, and services increased by 20, 000.

The increase in the number of employees is partially reflected that the cold of the Tohoku region, which had hindered many people from working, has returned to labor activities in February. The return of these workers has contributed to the increase in employment and the number of employees, especially in the construction, retail, and food and beverage services. This growth has partially decreased due to significant downward revision of data on the increase in employment in December and January, and other indicators point out that the weakness of the labor market.

Unemployment rates and growth

The labor market is still stable, although there are signs of further deceleration. The full unemployment rate in February rose from 3, 7 % of the previous month to 3, 9 %, the highest in January 2022. The rise in household labor indicators to 150, 000 in February 184. in February 184., has led to an increase in unemployment. 3. The coefficient of labor participation has not changed due to a decrease in the level of young workers and the level of elderly workers.

The number of weekly unemployment benefits applications showed that employment growth was slightly higher than expected and the previous week. In California and New York, the number of unemployment benefits has increased significantly, and the employment market has continued to soften.

The growth of wages last month was less than expected. The average hourly wage, which is a major inflation index, rose 0. 1 % in February. The average hourly wage in the past 12 months has risen 4. 3%, lower than expected, and rose 4. 4%in the previous month. The annual wage growth is still too strong for the Fed, but the coefficient of dismissal shows the possibility that wage growth will decrease before the epidemic, and the wage growth for the next few months.

According to an integrated report on public jobs and labor fluids of the Labor Statistics Bureau announced last week, the number of job openings in January decreased slightly from 8. 89 million to 8. 86 million in the previous month. The firing coefficient has also declined, indicating a continuous weakness of the welcome welcome welcome rate of welcome. < SPAN> The increase in the number of employees is partially reflected that the cold of the Tohoku region, which had hindered many people from working, has returned to labor activities in February. The return of these workers has contributed to the increase in employment and the number of employees, especially in the construction, retail, and food and beverage services. This growth has partially decreased due to significant downward revision of data on the increase in employment in December and January, and other indicators point out that the weakness of the labor market.

The labor market is still stable, although there are signs of further deceleration. The full unemployment rate in February rose from 3, 7 % of the previous month to 3, 9 %, the highest in January 2022. The rise in household labor indicators to 150, 000 in February 184. in February 184., has led to an increase in unemployment. 3. The coefficient of labor participation has not changed due to a decrease in the level of young workers and the level of elderly workers.

The number of weekly unemployment benefits applications showed that employment growth was slightly higher than expected and the previous week. In California and New York, the number of unemployment benefits has increased significantly, and the employment market has continued to soften.

Average hourly earnings: total vs. production & nonsupervisory

Percentage year-over-year

The growth of wages last month was less than expected. The average hourly wage, which is a major inflation index, rose 0. 1 % in February. The average hourly wage in the past 12 months has risen 4. 3%, lower than expected, and rose 4. 4%in the previous month. The annual wage growth is still too strong for the Fed, but the coefficient of dismissal shows the possibility that wage growth will decrease before the epidemic, and the wage growth for the next few months.

According to an integrated report on public jobs and labor fluids of the Labor Statistics Bureau announced last week, the number of job openings in January decreased slightly from 8. 89 million to 8. 86 million in the previous month. The firing coefficient has also declined, indicating a continuous weakness of the welcome welcome welcome rate of welcome. The increase in the number of employees is partially reflected that the cold of the Tohoku region, which had hindered many people from working, has returned to labor activities in February. The return of these workers has contributed to the increase in employment and the number of employees, especially in the construction, retail, and food and beverage services. This growth has partially decreased due to significant downward revision of data on the increase in employment in December and January, and other indicators point out that the weakness of the labor market.

The labor market is still stable, although there are signs of further deceleration. The full unemployment rate in February rose from 3, 7 % of the previous month to 3, 9 %, the highest in January 2022. The rise in household labor indicators to 150, 000 in February 184. in February 184., has led to an increase in unemployment. 3. The coefficient of labor participation has not changed due to a decrease in the level of young workers and the level of elderly workers.

The number of weekly unemployment benefits applications showed that employment growth was slightly higher than expected and the previous week. In California and New York, the number of unemployment benefits has increased significantly, and the employment market has continued to soften.

Rate implications

The growth of wages last month was less than expected. The average hourly wage, which is a major inflation index, rose 0. 1 % in February. The average hourly wage in the past 12 months has risen 4. 3%, lower than expected, and rose 4. 4%in the previous month. The annual wage growth is still too strong for the Fed, but the coefficient of dismissal shows the possibility that wage growth will decrease before the epidemic, and the wage growth for the next few months.

According to an integrated report on public jobs and labor fluids of the Labor Statistics Bureau announced last week, the number of job openings in January decreased slightly from 8. 89 million to 8. 86 million in the previous month. The dismissal coefficient also declined, indicating a continuous weakness of the welcome welcome rate of welcome welcome.

Another sign of the slowdown in economic growth is that the service business index of the additional Management Research Institute (ISM) fell from 53. 4 to 52. 6 in February of the previous month. This suggests that the base inflation rate may decrease in the next few months. However, one data cannot be regarded excessively. Since the economic data varies, the Fed needs to be alerted and needs to continue to analyze the tendency of data while taking into account the monthly fluctuations.

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References

This figure compares the average hourly wage of the overall hourly wage between 2015 to February 2024 with the average hourly wage between production workers and no n-production workers. During the display period, the average hourly wage of production workers and no n-manufacturing workers recovered earlier than the overall average hourly wage after the pandemic. The growth rate in February 2024 is 4, 5%in annual calculation, exceeding the overall average hourly wage of 4, 3%.

The average hourly wage without production and supervision reached up to 8, 27 % in February 2020 and a minimum of 1, 28 % in March 2021. The average income (total of individual income) was up to 8, 29 % and a minimum of 0, 67 %.

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L. P. data is 29-2-2024

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The labor market plays an important role in making the Fed interest rate hike, as the Fed has been struggling to reduce inflation to 2 % of the target level. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last month, the FRB remained the next day's standard interest rate at 5. 25 to 5. 5 % in the fourth consecutive meeting. The forecast announced after the seven conferences suggested that the Fed welcomed inflation and deceleration in economic growth over the past year and would probably start three times in 2024. The Fed is expected in the highly profitable tool market when the Bet has begun to shrink in late 2024.

Despite some easing, labor markets should further reduce the growth rate and lower inflation to 2 %, the target level of the Fed. The consumer price index in January was 3. 1 % yea r-o n-year, fell by more than 9 % by 2022. For this reason, concerns that in order to reduce inflation to to the Fed's target level, we need to enter the economic recession with a high unemployment rate. Another sign of the slowdown in economic growth is that the Service Laboratory's (ISM) service index index fell from 53. 4 to 52. 6 in February. This suggests that the base inflation rate may decrease in the next few months. However, one data cannot be overlooked excessively. Since the economic data varies, the Fed needs to be alerted and needs to continue to analyze the tendency of data while taking into account the monthly fluctuations.

See the text version

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The average hourly wage without production and supervision reached up to 8, 27 % in February 2020 and a minimum of 1, 28 % in March 2021. The average income (total of individual income) was up to 8, 29 % and a minimum of 0, 67 %.Source: Bloomberg Finance, L. P. data is 29-2-2024

The labor market plays an important role in making the Fed interest rate hike, as the Fed has been struggling to reduce inflation to 2 % of the target level. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last month, the FRB remained the next day's standard interest rate at 5. 25 to 5. 5 % in the fourth consecutive meeting. The forecast announced after the seven conferences suggested that the Fed welcomed inflation and deceleration in economic growth over the past year and would probably start three times in 2024. The Fed is expected in the highly profitable tool market when the Bet has begun to shrink in late 2024.Despite some easing, labor markets should further reduce the growth rate and lower inflation to 2 %, the target level of the Fed. The consumer price index in January was 3. 1 % yea r-o n-year, fell by more than 9 % by 2022. For this reason, concerns that in order to reduce inflation to to the Fed's target level, we need to enter the economic recession with a high unemployment rate. Another sign of the slowdown in economic growth is that the service business index of the additional Management Research (ISM) fell from 53. 4 to 52. 6 in February the previous month. This suggests that the base inflation rate may decrease in the next few months. However, one data cannot be regarded excessively. Since the economic data varies, the Fed needs to be alerted and needs to continue to analyze the tendency of data while taking into account the monthly fluctuations.

See the text version

The average hourly wage without production and supervision reached up to 8, 27 % in February 2020 and a minimum of 1, 28 % in March 2021. The average income (total of individual income) was up to 8, 29 % and a minimum of 0, 67 %.

See Infographics See the text version

The labor market plays an important role in making the Fed interest rate hike, as the Fed has been struggling to reduce inflation to 2 % of the target level. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last month, the FRB remained the next day's standard interest rate at 5. 25 to 5. 5 % in the fourth consecutive meeting. The forecast announced after the seven conferences suggested that the Fed welcomed inflation and deceleration in economic growth over the past year and would probably start three times in 2024. The Fed is expected in the highly profitable tool market when the Bet has begun to shrink in late 2024.

Despite some easing, labor markets should further reduce the growth rate and lower inflation to 2 %, the target level of the Fed. The consumer price index in January was 3. 1 % yea r-o n-year, fell by more than 9 % by 2022. For this reason, concerns that in order to reduce inflation to to the Fed's target level, we need to enter the economic recession with a high unemployment rate.

There was no special surprise at the monetary policy meeting of Powell Fed's hal f-year last week. Chairman Powell said that the U. S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would consider the rate of interest down by the end of the year, the time depends on the data, but the FRB will steadily proceed toward 2 %. He suggested that it is not far away.