NFL odds, picks, predictions for Week 5: Expert model projects 49ers, Bills, Ravens will keep winning

We're about a quarter into the 2023 NFL season, and the selections are pretty extensive at this point to make any clear conclusions about each team.

There are some good teams. The 49ers are an absolute juggernaut. Their leadership will be in perfect shape. The Bills are still the team to beat in the AFC East. The Eagles and Cowboys will be in a fierce battle in the NFC East. The Ravens and Lions are the new powers in the North.

There's also the bad. The Bears are a disaster. The Broncos are barely competitive. The Giants' 2023 run was a fluke.

Here's where it gets bad. The Bengals are really struggling with an inconsistent Joe Burrow. The Steelworkers aren't playing an offensive game. The Dolphins are struggling defensively. And the Falcons should consider adding Taylor Heinicke.

Every week, the Sporting News model projects each NFL game 10, 000 times, quantifying the team's chances of winning in a given game and calculating the team's chances of winning. The model adjusts each week as it learns more about each team and their quarterback, trying to separate the good, the bad, and the ugly.

For each game, the model displays the projected spread and the team's chances of winning. It also lists the latest playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds for each game are not based on bookmaker data, but on how the model sees the game progressing.

Here's how the model thinks Week 5 will play out.

NFL picks, predictions Week 5

Commanders (-6) vs. Bears

Chances of winning: 69, 8%, Coach

The Bears are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their two early wins against the Cardinals and Broncos, who are also the favorites to be named the worst team in the NFL along with the Bears, certainly helped Coach, but he's as good as any team outside of Chicago. The model and the betting market agree that Washington should win by a touchdown.

Bills (-7) vs. Jaguars

Chances of winning: 73, 6%, Bills

London could become a second home for the Jaguars, but the Bills just beat the Dolphins in the fourth round and look to be a closer rival to the Chiefs in the AFC. This model also gives sub-points to the favorites compared to the betting market, but both models agree that the Bills should win by a large margin.

Falcons (-6) vs. Texans

Chances of winning: 70, 3%, Eagles

Only here are the most spreads by the bazaar and the model. According to the BetMGM coefficients, the Texans are only 1. 5 points behind, but the model considers them almost tailing behind Tuchdown. The model favors protecting Atlanta and is still skeptical about Kvoterma Novichka, but Xi Jay Stroud was important to another Desmond Knight.

Titans (-2) vs. Colts

Probability of winning: 55, 5%, Titans

Tennessee is still a team that is not easy to complain about. A week later, they are beaten by eyebrows. In the right week, they will beat the Bengals. BetMGM considers the Colts with Anthony Richardson and, most likely, Jonathan Taylor as 1-point winners, while the model has the Titans as 2-point winners. It is worth remembering that while the coefficients are applied, the model does not provide a return for Taylor.

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Lions (-11) vs. Panthers

Odds of winning: 76, 2%, "Lyonz

Two teams moving in completely opposite directions. The Panthers have no chance of finding a way to win this year, while the Lions have an impressive win over the Packers at Lambeau Field. The model considers the Lions to be the bigger favorite (-11) compared to BetMGM, who has Detroit a t-9, but both teams agree that they have a chance to win this game.

Dolphins (-8) vs. Giants

Odds of winning: 76, 2%, Dolphins

The Giants' offense hasn't been all that important this season, and the Dolphins have a chance to make up for a terrible game on the road against Buffalo. The model has its own reservations about the state of Miami's defense, but still sees the Dolphins beating the Giants by just eight points as somewhat surprising. BetMGM views the Dolphins as a double-digit winner with a coefficient o f-10. 5.

Saints (-1) vs. Patriots

Chances of winning: 54, 5%, "Saints

Already two models and coefficients are spread with a view of relative favorites. The model takes the "Saints" and the bazaar - "Patriots". Both offenses looked terrible in the fourth round, but the "Patriots" have problems on the road vs. the "Cowboys", and between the "Saints" - vs. the "Baccanists" in a brand new Orleans. After all, this difference lies in the fact that the model sees the "Saints" composition as more qualified.

Ravens (-6) vs. Steelers

Chances of winning: 67, 9%, "Crows

The third time in the last four weeks, Ravens will play against rivals in northern AFC. Baltimore defeated Bengals with away, reversed Browns in the fourth round, and lost to Baltimore Coltz in the middle. Stillers, even when Kenny Picket is fine, has a serious offense problem, with it in mind that the model will win a solid victory in Pittsburg. BETMGM odds are quite low (-3, 5, Ravens), as Pittsburg is generally considered a difficult team to win.

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Bengals (-9) vs. Cardinals

Winning rate: 77, 8 %, Bengals

This is the biggest discrepancy between the coefficient of sports magazines. BETMGM is a thre e-point winner of Cardials, which is competing in all games this season. The same thing cannot be said to Bengals, who lost twice. This model hopes that Bengars will enter the playoffs someday, but there is no more time.

Eagles (-7) vs. Rams

Possibility of winning: 62, 5%, Eagles

Like Cardinals, Rams seems to be a candidate for winning any game this season. Los Angeles broke Coltz with an extension, and Eagles broke the command tower with an extension. Philadelphia has only 4 or 5 points away from Rams, but the model is still watching that he will win with a touchdown.

Broncos (PK) vs. Jets

Win rate: 50, 1%, Bronkos

Sean Paiton recorded his first victory as a head coach of Bronkos in Bears this week, and lost 70-20 in the weekly match against Dolphins. For example, Zack Wilson looked as good as before in his career during the defeat in Chiefs last week. BETMGM (-1, 5, Broncos) and BETMGM (Broncos) are close to victory, but both teams ultimately choose Denver as economic victory.

Chiefs (-7) vs. Vikings

Possibility of victory: 74, 6%, Chiefs

The Chiefs, who won the fourth round with Jets, seemed to be a problem, but Patrick Mahams is still Patrick Mahress, and this aggressive attack is still one of the league. Vikings won the victory from Panthers. Both models and BETMGM, including Minnesota, are expected to win the Chiefs, and they agree that Kansas City has gained 5 or 5 points to Vikings.

49ers (-4) vs. Cowboys

Possibility of victory: 64, 5 %, 49ers

This game may be this year's game. The 49ERS will defend the "Cowboys" like a car and defeat a rival a week later. The game in San Francisco may be a decisive battle between the two teams aiming to participate in Super Bowl. Both models and BetMGM (-3. 5) agree that 49ers is slightly advantageous.

Packers (-2) vs. Raiders

Possibility of victory: 58, 2 %, pack.

Rayders will use the unknown Aidan Oconel in the position of Kuvocirk. If Jimmy Halopolo was in the middle, everything might have changed. In Green Bay, Packers lost to Lions, but Jordan Love has played an impressive success, one of the reasons why BETMGM and the model are advantageous.

Updated NFL projections 2023

AFC East

team	XW-L	league	Wildcard	play off	First seed	Campaign Champion	Champion Super Cup
Bills	12-5	70, 5%	twenty four%	94, 5%	23, 5%	26, 4%	12, 8%
Dolphin	10-7	27, 4%	50, 6%	78%	6, 9%	5, 9%	twenty five%
bump	7-10	1, 3%	10, 7%	12%	0, 1%	0, 3%	0, 1%
Patriot	6-11	0, 7%	5, 6%	6, 4%	0%	0%	0%

AFC North

team	XW-L	league	Wildcard	play off	First seed	Campaign Champion	Champion Super Cup
Ravens	11-6	69%	19, 7%	88, 8%	15, 7%	13, 2%	5, 9%
eyebrow	9-8	15, 4%	35%	50, 4%	1, 3%	twenty one%	1%
Bengal	8-9	8, 5%	26, 8%	35, 3%	0, 4%	twenty four%	1%
STELEEER	8-9	7, 1%	19, 1%	26, 2%	0, 4%	0, 7%	0, 2%

AFC South

team	XW-L	league	Wildcard	play off	First seed	Campaign Champion	Champion Super Cup
Jaguars	9-8	40, 6%	15, 7%	56, 3%	1, 6%	3, 1%	1, 4%
Titans	9-8	39, 1%	14, 9%	54%	1, 6%	1, 7%	0, 5%
Texas	7-10	10, 4%	8, 9%	19, 4%	0, 2%	0, 2%	0, 1%
stick	7-10	9, 8%	8, 9%	18, 7%	0, 1%	0, 1%	0%

AFC West

team	XW-L	league	Wildcard	play off	First seed	Campaign Champion	Champion Super Cup
head	13-4	89%	8, 7%	97, 7%	45, 9%	40, 2%	20, 6%
Charger	9-8	9, 9%	40, 3%	50, 2%	twenty four%	3, 6%	1, 3%
Bronkos	6-11	0, 6%	5, 7%	6, 2%	0%	0, 2%	0, 1%
Raiders	6-11	0, 5%	5, 5%	6%	0%	0, 1%	0%

NFC East

team	XW-L	league	Wildcard	play off	First seed	Campaign Champion	Champion Super Cup
Eagles	13-4	64, 7%	31, 7%	96, 4%	26, 7%	25, 5%	13, 3%
Cowboys	11-6	34, 5%	54, 3%	88, 8%	11, 3%	16, 3%	8, 7%
Commander	7-10	0, 6%	8%	8, 6%	0%	0, 1%	0%
giant	6-11	0, 2%	4, 6%	4, 9%	0%	0, 1%	0%

NFC North

team	XW-L	league	Wildcard	play off	First seed	Campaign Champion	Champion Super Cup
Lions	11-6	79, 5%	10, 9%	90, 4%	10%	8, 9%	4, 2%
Package	8-9	11%	23, 7%	34, 6%	0, 3%	0, 6%	0, 2%
Viking	7-10	8, 8%	15, 6%	24, 4%	0, 1%	0, 6%	0, 2%
Bear	5-12	0, 7%	1, 5%	twenty two%	0%	0%	0%

NFC South

team	XW-L	league	Wildcard	play off	First seed	Campaign Champion	Champion Super Cup
Saints	10-7	54, 1%	17, 5%	71, 6%	1, 8%	3, 2%	1, 4%
Falcon	9-8	28, 3%	19, 1%	47, 3%	0, 6%	0, 6%	0, 3%
Buccaneer	8-9	17, 1%	16, 1%	33, 2%	0, 3%	0, 3%	0, 1%
Panther	5-12	0, 5%	1, 1%	1, 6%	0%	0%	0%

NFC West

team	XW-L	league	Wildcard	play off	First seed	Campaign Champion	Champion Super Cup
49ers	13-4	87, 1%	11, 3%	98, 3%	45, 8%	39, 5%	22, 2%
Sea Hawks	10-7	11, 1%	56, 1%	67, 2%	2, 8%	3, 8%	1, 6%
Aries	8-9	1, 9%	28, 2%	30, 1%	0, 3%	0, 5%	0, 2%
Cardinal	4-13	0%	0, 4%	0, 4%	0%	0%	0%