The Limits to Growth A report for the Club of Rome s project on the predicament of mankind

The Limits to Growth: A report for the Club of Rome's project on the predicament of mankind

Creator Medouz, Donella KH.

Author Medouz, Dennis L.

Author Panders, Yorgen

Author Belence, William V.

Access and applicants are Dennis Medouza, Yorgen Randers, William Berens III, UNIVERSITY OF PERSISISTENT FORLION, and WILLIAM WATTS It is posted with the permission of Sociates) 。 The Book Depository of Dart Mute Institute is the Creative Commons by-NC (Http: // CreativeCommons. Org/Licenses/By-nc/3. 0/DEED. EN_US), and related sites related to digital works Is distributed.

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THE LIMITS TO GROWTH

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Other Potomac Associates Books

Hope and fear of South American people

Potomax Associates is a supervisor survey and analysis agency and encourages active research on national important issues. Potomax Associates's mission is to increase the level of consciousness of the people and make public theory on the state and international important advanced issues.

Potomax Associates offers a special perspective by publishing related research and rejection from excellent authority in the United States and stage. However, the announcement means that Potomax Associates believes in the research and validity of the research, and the expressed eye belongs to the Creator.

Potomax Associates is a dut y-free company at 1707 L STREET NW, Washington, DC 20036.

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Potomax Associates book

Limit Report for the Roman Club Plan for the difficult position in the world population

Donella H. Medous

Dennis L. Meduz

William V. Belence III

University's book New-York:

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No decisive copies and reprints are prohibited. Most of the publications are Potomax Associates without resolution, at least in any format and means, at least, at least in any form and means, electrical, mechanical, copying, recorded, records, and at least any format and means.

2nd press issued in 1972. Published the third print in 1972. 4th print in 1972. 5 Press 1972.

The US Council Library Catalog Number: 73-187907 ISBN 0-8763-165-0 The design by Hubert Leki was in UNIVERSITY BOOKS, 381 Park Avenue South, New York, New York Printed in the United States © 1972 by Dennis L. MEADOWS

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Dr. Aurelio Patchi has urged us and many other people to discuss the world's lon g-standing dilemma, with the bottom of the global population.

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The MIT Project Team

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FOREWORD

In April 1968, 30 to 30 people, including scientists, teachers, economists, humanists, businesses, and international workers, gathered in Roman Day Linky Academy. Gathered in the idea of Dr. Aurelio Patchay, an Italian industrial manager, economist, and tall glasses, discussed a major scale theme of people and future positions.

Roman club

The meeting led to the Roman Club, an unofficial organization worthy of the invisible university. The purpose is to contribute to the understanding of the global systems where we all live, such as economy, politics, nature, and society, to contribute to the understanding of mutua l-dependent elements. It is to convey the interests of politicians and the general public, and as a result, to contribute to new political initiatives and actions.

The Roman Club is still an unofficial international association, with about 75 members. None of the members are in the post of the state, and they do not want to express their ideology, political, and national views. However, the main problems facing humanity are very complicated and interacted with each other, so everyone has united due to the deep belief that traditional systems and politics can no longer be dealt with.

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It is no longer possible to deal with conventional systems and politics.

The members of the Roman Club have as many experiences as nationality. Dr. Patchi, who is still the center of the group, is related to Fiat and Olivetti, leading Ital Consultal, the largest consulting company in Europe, which deals with economic and technology development. As another Roman Club's leader, the following person can mention: Director Ugo Timan of the Batel Research Institute, Alexander King, Economic Cooperation Development, and Tokyo's Japan Economic Research Center Director Okita Saburo, Eduardo Pasteel of German Hannover University of Institute of Technology, Carol Wilson of Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Although the Roman Club members are not more than 100, they are expanding so that representatives of diversified culture, nationality, and values will participate.

Project "The complexity of mankind

During the first few meetings of the Club of Rome, it was decided to launch a highly ambitious project called the Project on the Destiny of Humanity.

The aim of the project was to study a range of problems that affect people in all countries: poverty in the midst of plenty, environmental degradation, loss of trust in institutions, urban sprawl, job insecurity, alienation of young people, abandonment of traditional values, inflation and other financial and economic shocks.

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These seemingly disparate components that make up what the Club of Rome calls the "world problem" have three characteristics:

They are found to varying degrees in all societies; they contain technological, social, economic and political components; and, more importantly, they interact with each other.

The predicament of humanity is that, despite our ability to recognize the problem, we are unable to understand the origins, meaning and interrelationships of its many components and therefore unable to derive effective answers. This failure is due in large part to continuing to study individual components of the problem without understanding that the whole is more than the sum of its parts and that changing one element means changing the others.

The first phase of the Human Challenge Project took shape in the summer of 1970 at conferences in Bern, Switzerland and Cambridge, Massachusetts. During the two-week conference in Cambridge, Professor Jay Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) presented a global model that clearly identified many specific components of the problem and proposed a methodology for analyzing the behavior and relationships of the most important of these components. Professor Forrester and other pioneering researchers in the field of system dynamics created a group of experts well suited to the research requirements.

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The first phase of research was carried out by an international team led by Professor Dennis Meadows and funded by the Volkswagen Foundation. The team investigated the five main factors that determine and ultimately limit the growth of the planet, including population, agricultural production, natural resources, and industrial production.

And pollution. The survey has ended in real time. This book is the first report that published the survey results to a wide range of readers.

Global Challenge

It is very proud and joy that Potomax Associates publishes the "Growth Limit" with Roman Club and Mit research groups.

Like Roman Club, Potomax Associates are also young organizations, and we believe that Roman Club's goal is very close to our personal goals. Our work is interested in determining the quality and direction of our lives, and for all people who can help it, on the ongoing issues, both domestic and overseas. Bring fresh ideas, new tests, and new plans. Therefore, I am very happy to be able to post this bold and impressive work in our book program.

The "growth limit" has gained the attention of critics and believes that all society will cause this issue. We encourage all the readers to think about the results, and believe that growth is still the same as progress. And I believe that we need coordinated behavior to maintain this planet for our own children and our children, and we believe that we can think of the thoughtful men and women in all areas. There is.

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{Membership}
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range
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FIGURES

{Membership}
side
side
{Ruit}
rumor
{Ruit}
rumor
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{9 Creation of food}
{10 cultivated land area}
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Space
Space
Space

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Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
Space
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{Space}
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Space
Space
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TABLES

Space
{space}
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universe
{space}
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INTRODUCTION

Table 6 Price for air pollution decreased in a village in the United States

"I'm not trying to rise unnecessarily, but based on Infa-Secretary-General, which I can arrange for me, I'm actually a member of the United Nations. It can be arranged for 10 years to make it moderate. Reduces military expansion competition, improves the condition of the environment surrounding people, prevents population explosions, and gives a great hit on development efforts. If you reach out and start a large partnership for the appropriate 10 years, the difficulties you mentioned will reach such a great scale. I am very afraid of that.

Tan mentions, that is, the movement of military competition, to deterioration of the environment surrounding the environment, population explosions, and fiscal stagnation are often called the most important and long tasks of developed countries. In fact, most people believe that the subsequent formation of human society depends on the speed and execution of these issues, including survival. Nevertheless, only a small amount of the global population likes the awareness of these issues and the exploration of their conclusions.

Earth's view

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Everyone around the world has encountered the overall issues that urgently require their interest and behavior. These difficulties

Has influenced at several levels. You can spend a lot of time to find tomorrow's food for yourself and your family. There is an opportunity to confuse your own administration and the state where you live. He has the opportunity to confuse the world struggle while he is alive and the struggle in the right week of the competition that the clan creates in his area. < SPAN> {Space}

Table 2 The pace p.

{space}

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Table 3 Additional GN P.

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universe

Table 4 Specific natural resources p.

{space}

Table 5 Table of DDT in fat in fat p. 85

{space}

Table 6 Price for air pollution decreased in a village in the United States

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Earth's view

Everyone around the world has encountered the overall issues that urgently require their interest and behavior. These difficulties

Table 2 The pace p.

{space}

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Table 3 Additional GN P.

universe

Table 4 Specific natural resources p.

{space}

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Table 5 Table of DDT in fat in fat p. 85

{space}

Table 6 Price for air pollution decreased in a village in the United States

Tan mentions, that is, the movement of military competition, to deterioration of the environment surrounding the environment, population explosions, and fiscal stagnation are often called the most important and long tasks of developed countries. In fact, most people believe that the subsequent formation of human society depends on the speed and execution of these issues, including survival. Nevertheless, only a small amount of the global population likes the awareness of these issues and the exploration of their conclusions.

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Earth's view

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CHAPTER I THE NATURE OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

Everyone around the world has encountered the overall issues that urgently require their interest and behavior. These difficulties

These various human interest levels can be represented in the form of a graph as shown in Fig. 1. The graph has two dimensions, space and time. Each human problem can be positioned in a specific point above, depending on which geographical space it includes and how far it is expanding over time. Most people's anxiety is concentrated in the lower left of the figure. It is difficult to live in such people, and every day we have to make almost all efforts for our and family safety. Others think themselves and solve problems based on space and time. The pressure they experience affects not only themselves but also the society they belong to. They take actions, not only a few days, but also a few weeks, a few years.

THE MATHEMATICS OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

Time and space's prospects are affected by the person's culture, past experience, and the immediate nature of problems facing at each level. Most people solve problems in smaller areas and then move their interest in larger areas. In general, the wider the space related to the problem, the longer the time, the less the number of people who are really interested in solving them.

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Narrowing your field of view in too small areas can lead to disappointment and danger. Even if you try to solve temporary and local problems, there are many cases where the effort that is happening in a wider range becomes a bubble of water. Carefully cooled farm fields

Carefully cooled farmers can be destroyed by the international war. Local officials may be overturned by national policies. The economic development of the country can be hindered by the lack of demand in the world on its own products. In fact, it has become increasingly expressed today that both personal and national goals may be destroyed by lon g-term global trends like Tan. There is.

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Is the time left to control such a trend really less than 10 years?

If you can't control, what will it be?

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Is the result of such a global trend so threatening that the solution is prioritized over shor t-term local issues?

Is the time left to control such a trend really less than 10 years?

If you can't control, what will it be?

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Is the result of such a global trend so threatening that the solution is prioritized over shor t-term local issues?
We are studying only these issues as the first stage of the Roman Club's plan, "The difficult situation of mankind." Thus, our difficulties are on the upper right of the spatial diagram.	Regardless of where they appear in the spac e-time column, each person tackles their challenges with the support of the model. A model is a rudimentary speculation about esoteric systems in order. This is an attempt to understand the nuances of an infinitely different world, and select a set of collective research that can be applied to tasks under consideration, based on past recognition and skills. Farmers use mental models such as their land, their abilities, market opportunities, and past weather standards to determine the culture to sit every year. Geidenists establish a physiological model, that is, a map to make a path. Economicists use mathematical models to understand and predict international trade jets.
0.1	700
0.5	140
1.0	70
2.0	35
4.0	18
5.0	14
7.0	10
As a result, we have drawn a conclusion of the future. We are not the first group to express it. Such a conclusion has been reached by people who have looked at the universe from a heavy-handed and long-term perspective in the past few decades. It is not at least appeasing most of the politicians, who, likewise, are actively pursuing goals that contradict these results.	7

MODELS AND EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

These conclusions are very significant and raise many questions for subsequent research. We believe that this book will attract others in many fields of knowledge and many nations of the world to expand their spatial and short-term perspectives on their own work and join in the awareness and preparation for the "Grand Transition" (the transition from rising to global equilibrium).

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Han Feizi, within 500 BC

The five elements that are the basis of the study we will discuss here - the general population, food production, industrialization, environmental pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources - are all constantly increasing. Their annual increase in numbers follows a pattern that mathematicians call exponential growth. Almost every form of progressive work by the world's population, from the use of fertilizer to the expansion of human settlements, can be adopted in the form of an exponential growth curve (see Figures 2 and 3). Since much of this book is devoted to the basics and consequences of exponential growth curves, it is important to begin by understanding their cumulative data.

Most people are led to think of recovery as a linear process. A linear increase in size is

The Nature of Exponential Growth

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The Nature of Exponential Growth

the order of currency is still increasing linearly. The amount of growth that occurs each year is definitely not dependent on the length of the baby or the number of funds under the mattress.

A quantity grows exponentially if it grows by a constant percentage of the total quantity over a period of time. In a colony of yeast cells, each cell grows exponentially over a period of time, from 2 to 10 minutes. After 10 minutes, each individual cell has 2 cells.

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10 minutes after 100% right, the cells have 4, then 8, then 16. If a greedy person takes 100 euros from his mattress and invests it at 7% (so that the cumulative total grows by 7% in a given year), the invested money grows much faster than the linearly growing reserves under the mattress (see sketch 4). The amount of money added to a bank account every year, or the amount added to a yeast colony every 10 minutes, is not considered constant. It grows every day as the total quantity collected grows. Such exponential growth is a common process in bio, monetary, and many other systems around the world.

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WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

It may be a stale expression, but it can have an amazing consequences of exponential growth. The old Persian legend is a clever court. The court gives an elegant chess board to his king, and in return, the first square on the board is one grain of rice, two rice for the second square, and the third square. I asked for 4 grains ... The ruler agreed and ordered to supply rice from its own country. In the fourth square on the chess board, 8 tablets were given to the court, with more than 1 million rice in the court, with 512 grains on the tenth, 16. 384 tablets on the 15th, and one for the 20th square. One million rice had to be delivered from the 40th warehouse. Shortly before the king reached the 64th square, the total salary of the king's rice was exhausted. Inde x-functional scaling is deceptive because it is generated in large quantities immediately.

The French children's Reves reiterate the nuances of exponential growth, that is, the suddenness of an apparent when approaching a certain limit. Suppose there is a pond where water lilies grow. Every day, water lily flowers increase the volume. Leaving the water lily can be completely covered with the pond within 30 days and suppresses other creatures in the water. For a long time, the water lily looks small, so I decided not to worry about pruning until half of the pond. How many days will this happen? Obviously 20 and 9 days. There is only one day to protect your personal pond.

It is beneficial to think about exponential growth from the doubling time, that is, the time it takes to the increase in the increase in the pond.

* Thanks to Robert Lates for telling me this riddle.

The essence of exponential growth

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{rumba}

Table 1: Duplicate time

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Lamar} {Ramar} {Ramar} {Ramar} {Lamar

Rumorizing {Rumors

Increase rate (annual rate)

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Double increase (year)

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{Rumbers}

WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH

Rumorizing} {Rumors

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{Some} {Some}

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{Some} {Some}

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{Some} {Some}
{Some} {Some}	{RUIT}	Scope	The nature of exponential growth	Over the last 30 years, MIT has been developing new ways to understand the dynamic behavior of complex systems. This method is based on the recognition that the design of any system, the multitude of radial, interconnected, and sometimes long-lasting relationships between its components, often plays as important a role in determining its behavior as the individual components themselves. The model of the world described in this book provides a model of system dynamics.
The essence of exponential functional increase	730	1.5	90	0.3
The positive feedback loop, where bank account money increases in an exponential function, can be assumed as follows:	524	2.5	100	1.0
Suppose $ 100 has been deposited into an account. The first year is 7 % of $ 100, that is, $ 7 is added to the account, a total of $ 107. The interests of the following year were 7%of $ 107, that is, $ 7 and 49 cents, a total of $ 114 and 49 cents. One year later, the required interest will be 8 euros 00 cents or more. The higher the amount in the account, the more%generated every year. The more funds you have in your account, the more interest you have in any year. And for example, further. If you keep drawing a circle, the money you have accumulated in your account will increase in exponential functions. The interest rate (a certain 7 %) determines the compound rate, that is, the speed in which the bank account grows.	238	1.3	The essence of exponential growth	5.8
*In this book, "billion" stands for 10 million, or the "Milliard" of the euro.	201	1.4	Again, on the right side of the diagram, there is a loop that controls a higher population growth. This is a loop with a negative rotational period. Whereas a loop with a positive rotational period causes a free-flowing rise, a loop with a negative rotational period generally regulates the rise and slows down the system of the measured state. For example, it is like a thermostat that controls the temperature of a room. When the heat goes down, the thermostat turns on the heating system and the temperature goes up again. When the amount of heat reaches its limit, the thermostat turns off the heating system and the amount of heat starts to go down again. In a negative rotational loop, the change in a certain component spreads out in a circle until it returns to change this substance in the opposite direction to the direction in which it was originally changed.	3.4
If there are no deaths in the population, the population will grow exponentially due to positive replacement with births, as shown below. If there are no births, the population will decrease.	123	2.6	100	3.1
We can plan for the population of the Earth to stay within 7 billion people, as nature does its best to prevent. And if we continue to safely reduce the death rate, but this does not allow us to achieve a huge sport of lowering the birth rate below the past, there will be four people for every person living in the world until 60 years from now.	113	2.4	100	If the amount of industrial funds (factories, trucks, tools, machinery, etc.) is available, it is possible to produce a certain number of products annually. Actual production depends on the amount of labor, raw materials, and other resources. At this point, assuming that these resources are sufficient, for example, capital is considered to be the limit element of production. (This moment is included in the world model). A considerable part of the annual production is composed of consumer products such as fibers, automobiles, and houses, leaving the industrial system. However, some more serious products, such as machine tools, steelworks, and lathes, are considered to be invested to increase funds. Here, another positive feedback loop occurs. The more capital increases, the more
The fluctuation of the output is investment, and more investment means more cash. For example, if cash is supplied in large quantities, the production will increase and increase. The construction of larg e-scale industrial facilities such as power plants and petroleum refining can lead to a certain number of liabilities, so this feedback cycle also has a lag.	101	1.0	The essence of exponential growth	9.9
rumor	88	3.0	250	1.6
Annual population increase rate (1961-69) (%/ year)	63	2.4	70	rumor
{Summary}	60	1.0	{Some}	3.4

{Some}

{Slightly}

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soviet union

{SUPD}

1. 100
{Some} {Some}	{Slightly}
{Side}	100
The positive feedback loop, where bank account money increases in an exponential function, can be assumed as follows:	140
{Some}	Indonesia
Others {general} {general} {General} {General} {General} {General} {General} {General}	. 08
If there are no deaths in the population, the population will grow exponentially due to positive replacement with births, as shown below. If there are no births, the population will decrease.	250
We can plan for the population of the Earth to stay within 7 billion people, as nature does its best to prevent. And if we continue to safely reduce the death rate, but this does not allow us to achieve a huge sport of lowering the birth rate below the past, there will be four people for every person living in the world until 60 years from now.	130
The fluctuation of the output is investment, and more investment means more cash. For example, if cash is supplied in large quantities, the production will increase and increase. The construction of larg e-scale industrial facilities such as power plants and petroleum refining can lead to a certain number of liabilities, so this feedback cycle also has a lag.	Summary} {Summary
rumor	440
Annual population increase rate (1961-69) (%/ year)	60
{Summary}	German Federal Republic

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{side}

rumor

The most pleased in this future is the normal table. This table shows the fiscal growth rate and population growth rate of the world's most population, where 64 % of the world's population is currently living. Table 2 clearly shows the basis of this proverb:

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CHAPTER II THE LIMITS TO EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

"The rich will be more rich, and unfortunate people will become children."

In fact, the growth rate shown in Table 2 is unlikely to be constant until the end of this century. Almost all

*The GDP per capita and the estimated growth rate include large errors, but this mainly derives GDP from the elements of no n-affected tangible products, and the GDP estimated value is r e-values in US dollars. This is because it is difficult to calculate. The UN estimated value is generally consistent with the estimated value of IBRD. Bank of Bank: Atlas (Washington DC: International Reconstruction Development Bank, 1970).

Property of exponential functional increase

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Various factors will change in the next 30 years. For example, the end of the civilia in Nigeria is likely to increase the pace of financial recovery in the country, but the occurrence of civil war in Pakistan has already hindered the country's fiscal recovery. However, basically, the above growth rate is a product of a difficult soci o-economic system, basically measured, and does not change rapidly except in serious social anxiety. Note that it is likely to change slowly.

For these 10 countries, the outer cutting value of per capita (GNP) per capita (GNP) from the present to 2000 is simply calculated, assuming that the conditional growth rate of the population and GNP is almost the same. This calculation result is as shown in Table 3. The meaning of it is extremely unlikely to be sold. I don't think it's monitoring. They only show how our systems are being composed in real time, the perfect purpose. It indicates what kind of process is actually

To display more columns, scroll the table.

FOOD

rumor

Table 3 Expected GNP for 2000 years

{Wramy}

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Country name

overview

GDP per capita (US dollar*)

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The Republic of China

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India

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part

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Soviet Union

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6. 330

rumor

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united states of america

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11. 000

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{overview}

{support}

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NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES

Indonesia

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Japan

overview

23. 200

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{Summary}
1	2	3	4	5	6
rumor}	The essence of exponential rise	Most people would intuitively and correctly reject extrapolations such as those in Table 3. But we should realize that in rejecting the extrapolations, we are also rejecting the assumption that no change occurs in the system. If the extrapolations in Table 3 did not actually occur, the balance of the positive and negative feedback contours would change, which in turn determines the population and capital growth of each country. Births, deaths, investment rates, capital depreciation rates, all of these could change. To envision results other than those shown in Table 3, we need to show which, how much, and when of these factors change. It is these issues that our model considers, at the global level rather than the national level.	Can the population and capital growth rates in Table 3 be physically supported in the world? How many people can be supported on this planet, at what well levels, and for how long? To answer these questions, we need to take a closer look at the world's systems that physically support population and economic growth.	What will be needed to sustain the world's economic and population growth until the year 2000 and perhaps beyond? The list of necessary materials is long, but can be divided into two broad, conditional categories.	The second category necessary for growth is social needs. Even if the physical system of Earth has been able to support a larger and economic system.
Food, resources, and healthy environments are necessary conditions for growth, but not sufficient conditions. Even if they are abundant, social issues may hinder their growth. But let's assume that the best social conditions are now widespread. So what kind of growth does physical systems support? The answer is to some extent the upper limit of population and capital growth, but does not guarantee that growth will actually reach that.	When a proof of a preliminary child is issued in poor countries, the cause of death is usually pneumonia, dysentery, and other diseases. In fact, these children are often killed in nutrition.	100	The second category necessary for growth is the limit of the limit of exponential growth	31	55
There is virtually no opportunity to expand arable land.	. . . In drier regions, it may even be necessary to return marginal or sub-marginal land to permanent pasture.	420	The Limits of Exponential Growth According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), basic caloric and especially protein needs are not being met in most developing countries (see Figure 8). Moreover, even as total world agricultural production increases, per capita food production in non-industrialized countries is barely holding up at its current inadequate level (see Figure 9). Do such depressing statistics mean that global food production has already reached its limits?	95	154
The limits of exponential growth	If the world's population decided to clear all the arable land possible and produce all the food possible, at the expense of high capital costs, how many people could theoretically be fed?	2300	South Asia, parts of East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, parts of Latin America and Africa.	111	150
If the world's people decided to open as much cultivated land as possible and produce as much food as possible, at the expense of high capital costs, how many people could theoretically be fed?	The curve at the bottom of Fig. 10 shows the amount of land required to develop an increasing world population as average at 0. 4 hectares per capita. (To develop the whole population of the world based on the current US standard, 0. 9 hectares per person). The curve above in FIG. 10 indicates an aging of the arable land area that is actually available. This line is inclined downward because it requires a certain amount of land (0. 08 hectares per person) as the population increases by one person.	110	Farmland is not suitable for food production. The loss of land erosion is not shown here, but it is certainly not enough. Figure 10 shows that even if the land requirements per capita and the population growth rate are the same as the present, under optimistic assumptions that all possible land are used, there will be a desperate land shortage before 2000 years. It shows that.	60	148
For example, tractors, fertilizers, irrigation systems, etc. It indicates that each time the productivity is doubled, it increases about 30 years, that is, a shorter time than the population doubling.	Undoubtedly, almost all of these deaths are caused by social restrictions, not the physiological constraints of the world. However, there is a trivial connection between these two types of restrictions in the food production system. If hig h-quality farmland is still easy to obtain and can be cultivated, there will be no economic barriers to supply food to people suffering from hunger, and there will be no difficult public selection. However, the best intermediate point in the world that can potentially cultivate the world has already been cultivated, and the invention of the new region is already very expensive, so conversations are regarded as "profitable". 。 This is a social problem, and physiological constraints are spurred.	36	Such an increase in prices is called the "price rise law." This rise can be called the law of rising costs. The best and most sad example of this law is the value evaluation of past agricultural results. In order to increase larg e-scale food production by 34 % between 1951 and 1966, farmers increase annual spending to tractors, 146 % of annual investment in nitrate fertilates, and 300 % of the annual use of pesticides. Ta. The 11th increase of 34 % requires even greater funds and resources.	21	48
In addition, it is possible to avoid or expand these limits by eliminating binding to the earth (synthetic foods) or creating new fresh water sources (freshwater of seawater). 。 These technological innovations are described in detail in Chapter 4. For now, it is enough to accept that any new development is natural or not considered free. Factories, raw materials for producing synthetic foods, equipment and energy for purifying seawater must all be obtained from the global physiological system. < SPAN> How many people can nurture this earth? Of course, there is no simple answer to this question. The answer depends on what choices you make from various lo w-cost options. Producing the most food products and the fact that the world's population is important, producing other products and provisions that you want is directly traded. The demand and supply for these products continues to increase as the population grows, making the compromise more and more denied, making it difficult to solve. However, even if food production continues to be selected as a primary issue, the law of continuing population growing and increased loss is the possibility that all available resources will concentrate on food production. I have hidden.	Exploring functional increase	11	In this section, we discussed the possible boundary for food production, that is, free land, once. There are other possible Fronters, but they cannot be discussed in detail due to paper reasons. Among them, the second important thing after land is the possibility of using freshwater. The annual flow of freshwater from the surface of the earth has an upper limit, and its demand is increasing in exponential functions. A graph as shown in Fig. 10 can be drawn.	9	29
In consideration of these financial moment, if the interest rate rises when accessibility is reduced, in real time, the following is actually displayed.	Platinum, gold, zinc, and lead alone cannot satisfy demand. In the current formation rate. Silver, tin, and uranium may be short on a large percentage at the end of the century. In order to maintain the usage rate up to 2050, some required fossils may be depleted.	240	In consideration of these financial moment, if the interest rate rises when accessibility is reduced, in real time, the following is actually displayed.	93	173
In consideration of these financial moment, if the interest rate rises when accessibility is reduced, in real time, the following is actually displayed.	Platinum, gold, zinc, and lead alone cannot satisfy demand. In the current formation rate. Silver, tin, and uranium may be short on a large percentage at the end of the century. In order to maintain the usage rate up to 2050, some required fossils may be depleted.	26	However, the fourth row in Table 4 indicates that the global usage rate of all natural resources is increasing in exponential functions. In many resources, the usage rate is increasing at a higher speed than the population. In other words, every year, for example, more people consume resources, and the average consumption per person increases every year. In other texts, the exponential increase in resource consumption is justified as a positive feedback loop due to the population growth.	21	64
Table 4 Natural resources cannot be played	{Wramy}	97	{KRUID}	46	94
{Slightly}	{Some}	13	Static index (year) B	13	41

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7	8	9	10
7, 7 6, 4 5, 1	{side}	{side}	{side}
{side}	{Side}	{side}	42
5x10 12 tons	{side}	19
Set} {Set	cobalt	44
{Rumbers}	{Side}	32
copper	308x10 6 tons	{side}	33
{side}	gold	26
{Side}	{Side}	{side}	28
1x10 11 tons	{side}	{side}	25
news	91x10 6 tons	14
{side}	{side}	24

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1	2	3	4	5	6
rumor}	The essence of exponential rise	Most people would intuitively and correctly reject extrapolations such as those in Table 3. But we should realize that in rejecting the extrapolations, we are also rejecting the assumption that no change occurs in the system. If the extrapolations in Table 3 did not actually occur, the balance of the positive and negative feedback contours would change, which in turn determines the population and capital growth of each country. Births, deaths, investment rates, capital depreciation rates, all of these could change. To envision results other than those shown in Table 3, we need to show which, how much, and when of these factors change. It is these issues that our model considers, at the global level rather than the national level.	Can the population and capital growth rates in Table 3 be physically supported in the world? How many people can be supported on this planet, at what well levels, and for how long? To answer these questions, we need to take a closer look at the world's systems that physically support population and economic growth.	What will be needed to sustain the world's economic and population growth until the year 2000 and perhaps beyond? The list of necessary materials is long, but can be divided into two broad, conditional categories.	rumor
{Set}	overview	79	Major producer (percentage of global quantity) g	34	65
{Summary}	Australia (33) Guinea (20) Jamaica (10)	38	{Member States}	22	49
South Africa (75)	Soviet Union (30) Türkiye (10)	150	rumor	53	96
rumor	Congo Republic (31) Zambia (16)	31	{RUMBERS} Congo Republic	20	50
USA (20) Soviet Union (15) Zambia (13)	USA (33) Soviet Union (13) Japan (11)	13	{South Africa (40)	47	85
{section}	Soviet Union (33) South America (18) Canada (14)	16	{Wramy}	13	42
America (39)	Soviet Union (13) Australia (13) Canada (11)	17	rumor	15	61
Soviet Union (34) Brazil (13) South Africa (13)	{South Africa Republic (13)	40	{soviet union}	28	72
Exploring functional growth limit	Rumors} {Rumors	23	Rumorizing {Rumbers	18	50

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7	8	9	10
Index (year) D	{side}	{Rumor < Moribuden	{side}
{side}	{Side}	40
Natural gas	1. 14x10 15 cubic feet	63
{Side}	{side}	38
147x10 9 pounds	{side}	{side}	33
oil	455x10 9 barrel	31
{side}	{side}	Shirokan family M	26
{side}	{Side}	{side}	24
5, 5x10 9 Trooon	{Silver}	22
Set} {Side	Tin	4. 3x10 6LG ton	26

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Countries or regions with the highest reserved amount (percentage for the whole world) f

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Saudi Arabia (17) Kuwait (15)

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Malaysia (41) Bolivia (16) Thailand (13)

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China (73)

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Key: US Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facts and Problems, 1970 (Washington, DC :: Government Printing Office., 1970).	C Key: US Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facts and Problems, 1970.	where r = average increase rate in column 4 and s = static index in column 3.	G Key: United Nations Department of Financial and Public Affairs, Statistical Yearbook 1969 (New York: United Nations, 1970).
The J Bauxite was developed in duralumin conversion.	1960	20	3.0
In this case, chromium ore with the longest static reservoir index of the resources in Table 4 has been selected. In this case, it was selected because chrome ore has the longest static reservoir index among all resources in Table 4. The shor t-term resource scale is different, but the overall composition is similar.	According to Fig. 11, in the increase in exponential resources consumption, the static reserved index (420 chromium) is quite misleading as an index that measures resource use. I understand that. You can define a new index, an index amount index. This indicators reflect the potential life of each resource, assuming that it is the same as the current consumption increase (420 years in chrome).	62	4.9
Of course, the actual use of no n-renewable resources over the next few decades will be determined by a much more complex factor than those that can be represented by a simple static reserved index or an inde x-functional reserved index. We use detailed models that take into account many relationships, such as changes in ore dignity, production costs, new mining technology, elasticity of consumer demand, alternative to other resources, etc. I researched.	Exploring functional growth limit	131	2.2
Of course, the actual use of no n-renewable resources over the next few decades will be determined by a much more complex factor than those that can be represented by a simple static reserved index or an inde x-functional reserved index. We use detailed models that take into account many relationships, such as changes in ore dignity, production costs, new mining technology, elasticity of consumer demand, alternative to other resources, etc. I researched.	1964	100	3.9
Fig. 12 shows a computer graph showing the potential for the future of resources with a static reserved index, such as chrome, 400 years in 1970. On the vertical axis, the reserves of reserves (reserves), annual resource consumption (USAGE Rate), unit resources mining costs, progress of mining and processing technology (T), and alternative resources of the original usage of resources. Various values such as the percentage (F) that have been shifted to to	1961	10	5.2
and crushing. The cost begins to grow, slowly at first, and it is very nimble. The increase in cost buyers forces them to apply chromium more effectively, by the ability to replace it with other metals. Until 125, the saved chromium, which determines within 5% of the initial supply, becomes easily accessible.	Only at very high costs does the extraction of fresh supplies literally decrease to zero.	60	2.3
The demand of resources continues to increase in exponential functions. The price of resources with the shortest stock index has already begun to rise. For example, mercury prices have risen by 500%in the past 20 years, and lead prices have risen 300%in the past 30 years.	1960	48	The simple conclusion derived from the global reserves of resources is complicated by the fact that the sharing and consumption of resources are not evenly distributed in the world. The last four rows in Table 4 clearly indicate that advanced consumer countries are significantly dependent on the network of international agreements with the country of origin the supply of raw materials necessary for their industrial base. Manufacturers as resources become more expensive outside of production, and as the remaining resources are concentrated in more limited geographical regions, in addition to the complex economic issues of the fate of various industries. And difficult political problems with the relationship with the consumer country are added. Recently, the South American mines have become nationalized and the success of the Middle East has succeeded in urging oil prices, indicating that political issues could occur much before the economic final decision. 。 A huge amount of resources is buried in the earth's crust, and people have learned to take out it and turn it into a useful one. However, the reserves are not infinite. The following words are not surprising, because one day has suddenly approached a certain upper limit, one day. Given the current resource consumption speed and the predictive growth rate of this speed, most important regenerated resources will be extremely expensive by the year of IO. The above description is still true, despite the most optimistic assumptions for the indispensable amount of reserves, technological progress, alternatives, and processing.
The simple conclusion derived from the global reserves of resources is complicated by the fact that the sharing and consumption of resources are not evenly distributed in the world. The last four rows in Table 4 clearly indicate that advanced consumer countries are significantly dependent on the network of international agreements with the country of origin the supply of raw materials necessary for their industrial base. Manufacturers as resources become more expensive outside of production, and as the remaining resources are concentrated in more limited geographical regions, in addition to the complex economic issues of the fate of various industries. And difficult political problems with the relationship with the consumer country are added. Recently, the South American mine has become nationalized and the success of the Middle East has succeeded in urging oil prices, indicating that political issues could occur much before the economic final decision. 。	1964	67	All of these options involve trade-offs. In this case, the trade-offs are more difficult because you have to choose between present and future benefits. To ensure the necessary number of resources in the future, you need to take measures to reduce current resource use. In many cases, this policy is achieved by increasing the price of the resource. Recycling waste and improving product design are costly and are now considered "uneconomic" in most countries of the world. But even if they were effectively implemented, as long as the drivers of demographic and industrial growth continue to increase the population and the per capita demand for resources, the system would begin to accelerate towards its own limits.
Resources may or may not cross human hands. Therefore, it is not surprising that the other value that increases exponentially in the earth system is polluted.	Recently, a person has begun to worry about the influence of his environment. The attempt to scientifically measure this effect is more recently and is still very incomplete. Of course, at this time, the final conclusion of the global pollution absorption capacity cannot be made. However, this section can give four main points from a dynamic and global perspective, indicating how difficult it is to understand and control the future of the environmental system. They are as follows:	254	universe
3. If there is a natural delay in the environmental process, it is more likely that the necessary management measures will be underestimated, and as a result, these upper limits will indicate unintended performance.	1942	10	.0
In this book, the available data is limited. Therefore, for each item, the most fully studied pollutants are explained as an example. It does not need to cause the pollutants listed here to cause the greatest concern (although any pollutant causes some concerns). Rather, these are the best we understand. < SPAN> Resources may or may not cross human hands. Therefore, it is not surprising that the other value that increases exponentially in the earth system is polluted.	Exploring functional growth limit	130	universe
3. If there is a natural delay in the environmental process, it is more likely that the necessary management measures will be underestimated, and as a result, these upper limits will indicate unintended performance.	1964	64	7.6

In this book, the available data is limited. Therefore, for each item, the most fully studied pollutants are explained as an example. It does not need to cause the pollutants listed here to cause the greatest concern (although any pollutant causes some concerns). Rather, these are the best we understand. Resources may or may not cross human hands. Therefore, it is not surprising that the other value that increases exponentially in the earth system is polluted.

Many people have concluded that the life of the biological area suitable for the habitat of organisms in the area is not hundreds of millions of years, based on extremely objective data. This is completely because of our vision.

Recently, a person has begun to worry about the influence of his environment. The attempt to scientifically measure this effect is more recently and is still very incomplete. Of course, at this time, the final conclusion of the global pollution absorption capacity cannot be made. However, this section can give four main points from a dynamic and global perspective, indicating how difficult it is to understand and control the future of the environmental system. They are as follows:

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1. One of the few types of contamination actually measured for a long period of time seems to have increased exposure.

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A FINITE WORLD

2. There is almost nothing to know where the upper limit of these contaminated curves is.

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CHAPTER III GROWTH IN THE WORLD SYSTEM

4. Many pollutants are global in the distribution, and their adverse effects are far away from the occurrence.

It is impossible to explain these four points for all pollutants.

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In this book, the available data is limited. Therefore, for each item, the most fully studied pollutants are explained as an example. The pollutants listed here do not need to cause the biggest concern (although any pollutant causes some concerns). Rather, these are the best we understand.

Literally all pollutants grow exponentially with time. The exact rate of growth of all the types listed below varies, but most of them grow rather than the general public. Some pollutants are definitely directly related to population growth (or agricultural work with population growth). Others are more closely related to the rise of industry and technological development. Most of the pollutants included in the difficult universal system act as a loop of active withdrawal, for example, with the general public and with industrialization.

For starters, we will look at the polluting drugs related to the increase in usage due to the increase in the population of the earth. The process of financial formation is essentially the process of applying maximum energy to increase the productivity and productivity of human labor. Nearly one of the best features of human population welfare is the amount of energy consumed by the first person (see Figure 14). The world's per capita energy use is increasing by 1, 3% per year16. In fact, the arter rise covering the increase in population is increasing by 3, 4% per year.

In reality, the Earth's population obtains 97% of its industrial energy from fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas). 17 When combining these appearances of fuel, what are the differences, in what quantities, and what are the limits of exponential lift? Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). As a result of the burning of fossil fuels, 20 billion tons of carbon dioxide are emitted annually. 18 As shown in Figure 15, the measured amount of Co 2 in the atmosphere increases exponentially, apparently at a rate of 0. 2% per year. Of the Co2 released during the burning of fossil fuels, no more than 50% actually enters the atmosphere. If we could ever need people without fossil fuels and with energy provided by nuclear power, we could believe that this increase in the CO2 content of the atmosphere will eventually come to an end and will not have time to have any noticeable ecological or climatic effects.

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The limits of exponential growth

Figure 16 shows the projected level of thermal pollution in a large city as a percentage of declining solar energy.

Limits of exponential growth
*Krypton is equivalent to 1 gram of radium. Environmental concentrations are usually expressed in microcuries (one millionth of a curie).
Limits of exponential growth
(half-life from a few hours to 9, 4 years depending on the isotope) and 2. 910 curie tritius (half-life 12, 5 years) in the wastewater. From now until the year 2000 The figure also shows an assessment of the radioactive waste that these nuclear power plants dispose of annually and the accumulated waste that should be safely stored (best reactor fuel).

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FIG. 18 shows a chemical change that is occurring in large lakes in North America by accumulation of industrial soluble substances.

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Agricultural waste and urban waste. In this lake, marke t-based fish production is also decreasing at the same time. Figure 19 shows why the increase in organic waste has such a miserable effect on the fish ecosystem. This figure shows the amount of time of the Baltic Sea melted oxygen (fish "breathing") as a function of time. As more waste enters water and decomposes, dissolved oxygen is insufficient. In some parts of the Baltic Sea, the oxygen concentration has almost zero.

THE PURPOSE OF THE WORLD MODEL

Heat and mercury, which are harmful metals, flows into waterways and atmosphere through cars and waste incinerators.

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Industrial processes and pesticides have shown a sharp increase in mercury consumption in the United States from 1946 to 1968. Of this mercury, only 18 % of the mercury are recovered and recycled after use. As shown in Fig. 21, when a deeper sample from the greenland ice sheet was collected, an exponential increase in lead concentration in the air was observed.

In Fig. 10, all of these index curves for various types of pollution can be inserted into the future, as if the land demand was extracted in Fig. 11. In both cases

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FIG. 18 shows a chemical change that is occurring in large lakes in North America by accumulation of industrial soluble substances.

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In Fig. 10, all of these index curves for various types of pollution can be inserted into the future, as if the land demand was extracted in Fig. 11. In both cases

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FIG. 18 shows a chemical change that is occurring in large lakes in North America by accumulation of industrial soluble substances.

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THE FEEDBACK LOOP STRUCTURE

Heat and mercury, which are harmful metals, flows into waterways and atmosphere through cars and waste incinerators.

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In the previous figure, the exponential growth curve ultimately reach the upper limit of cultivable land on the earth and the total amount of resources that can be used economically. However, there is no upper limit on the exponential growth curve of the pollutant of pollutants in FIG. 15 to 21. This is because it is unknown how much the natural ecosystem of the earth can be disturbed without severe consequences. How much CO2 and thermal pollution can be released without causing irreversible changes in the climate of the earth, or before they have a serious problem of life activity, how much radioactivity, lead, mercury, and pesticides are planted. It is unknown whether it is incorporated into fish and humans.

One of the basis necessary for paying attention to pollutant release is that they do not know the limits of the earth's abilities that absorb pollutants. The threat of these limits is generally greater, as it generally takes a lot of time from the release of pollutants in the environment to the negative effect on the ecosystem. Such a dynamic result of the delay effect can be described in the DDT method via the environment after being used as an insecticide. The following results are obtained from the thorough study of the system dynamics*that introduced the correct DDT numbers. Regarding all long life toxic drugs, such as mercury, lead, cadmium, other insecticides, other pesticides (PHB), and radioactive waste, the conclusion of Artelic (although there are some changes in clear numbers).

*Research by Yorgen Van Randers and Dennis L. Medoise is as in the appendix.

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DDT is an artificial organic matter and is dumped in the environment every year as a pesticide of 100, 000 tons. In the sea, the percentage of DDT is absorbed by plankton, the proportion of plankton is eaten by fish, and the percentage of fish is eaten by people. In each stage of this process, DDT has the opportunity to break down into harmless drugs, return to the sea, or concentrate in living organizations. There is a specific shor t-term coupling in one of these lines. All of these routes. Analyzing all of these possibilities on a computer, the results in Fig. 22 were obtained.

The DDT use indicator in the figure is equivalent to the main use indicators from 1940 to 1970. The figure shows that the world's DDT indicators in 1970 have begun to decrease, and that it reaches zero in 2000. Due to the characteristics of the delay system, the DDT usage of fish has continued to increase for more than 10 years for 1995, and the conclusions on DDT usage are accepted more than 20 years later. < SPAN> The basis needed to pay attention to the release of pollutants is that they do not know the limits of the earth's abilities that absorb pollutants. The threat of these limits is generally greater, as it generally takes a lot of time from the release of pollutants in the environment to the negative effect on the ecosystem. Such a dynamic result of the delay effect can be described in the DDT method via the environment after being used as an insecticide. The following results are obtained from the thorough study of the system dynamics*that introduced the correct DDT numbers. Regarding all long life toxic drugs, such as mercury, lead, cadmium, other insecticides, other pesticides (PHB), and radioactive waste, the conclusion of Artelic (although there are some changes in clear numbers).

*Research by Yorgen Van Randers and Dennis L. Medoise is as in the appendix.

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The DDT use indicator in the figure is equivalent to the main use indicators from 1940 to 1970. The figure shows that the world's DDT indicators in 1970 have begun to decrease, and that it reaches zero in 2000. Due to the characteristics of the delay system, the DDT usage of fish has continued to increase for more than 10 years for 1995, and the conclusions on DDT usage are accepted more than 20 years later. One of the basis necessary for paying attention to pollutant release is that they do not know the limits of the earth's abilities that absorb pollutants. The threat of these limits is generally greater, as it generally takes a lot of time from the release of pollutants in the environment to the negative effect on the ecosystem. Such a dynamic result of the delay effect can be described in the DDT method via the environment after being used as an insecticide. The following results are obtained from the thorough study of the system dynamics*that introduced the correct DDT numbers. Regarding all long life toxic drugs, such as mercury, lead, cadmium, other insecticides, other pesticides (PHB), and radioactive waste, the conclusion of Artelic (although there are some changes in clear numbers).

*Research by Yorgen Van Randers and Dennis L. Medoise is as in the appendix.

Limit index lift

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QUANTITATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

If it takes a long time from the release of the pollutants to appear in harmful forms, at least the same for the harmful effects of pollutants and the harmful effects are ultimately reduced. I know it takes only time. In other words, a pollution prevention system that relys on only the regulation at the time of the harm is already detected is likely to worsen before improving the problem. This kind of system is

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Control is extremely difficult because we must take the current action based on the expected results of the future.

Currently, only developed countries around the world are seriously working on environmental pollution issues. Unfortunately, many kinds of pollution spread throughout the world over time. Greenland is far from the leading sources in the atmosphere, but the amount of lead deposited on Greenland ice has increased by 300 % since 1940. As shown in Table 5, the DDT is accumulated in the fat of all regions in the world, from Eskimo in Alaska to urban consumers.

Since the production of pollutants is a complex function of population scale, industrialization, and specific technical development, it is difficult to accurately estimate how fast the total emission of pollutants will increase. If the population of 7 billion in 2000 has a GDP per capita as the current American, it can be estimated that the total amount of pollution given to the environment is at least 10 times. Can the earth's natural system with this scale withstand the invasion of this scale? I don't know it. There is a theory that humanity has already worsened the environment in which larg e-scale natural systems take irreversible damage. We do not know the exact upper limit of what kind of contamination the earth can absorb the global pollution, and whether all kinds of pollution can be absorbed in combination. But we know that there is an upper limit. In many areas, it has already exceeded its upper limit. Most reliable way

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Table 5 DDT in body fat

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Desired birth rate

Number in the example

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CHAPTER IV TECHNOLOGY AND THE LIMITS TO GROWTH

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TECHNOLOGY IN THE WORLD MODEL

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Energy and resources

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In order to enjoy a larg e-scale advantage of this upper limit, it is necessary to increase the population, for example, as the population is polluted, and as a person's work is polluted.

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When, where, can you see mercury in sea fish? If a factory that has polluted in the environment is in a remote location to "isolated" contaminated drugs, where are these pollutants until 10 or 20 years?

Perhaps technical development can develop the industry while lowering the value of pollution. On Wednesday, the US Quality Committee demanded that $ 105 billion (42 % of the industry is burdened) by 1975 to select the selective purification of South America, water and waste pollution. 。 27 Each state has the option of postponing these costs and increasing the current rise of serious businesses in their own country, but the only reason is that the displacement due to the deterioration of the surrounding environment is coming. This cannot be restored without a lot of expenses.

Limits of exponential lift
We have deconstructed the intake of food, non-renewable resources, and pollutants as individual points necessary for the growth and maintenance of population and industry. Then we have considered at what points the demand will increase and what the upper limit will be. By the method of unpretentious extrapolation of the demand growth curve, we have tried to estimate in the long run the time it will take for these moments to rise at the current rate of increase. From these extrapolations we have made a conclusion that almost all sensitive people already understand: a short time to double many forms of human beings at the limit of lifting them.	World system growth	Furthermore, each of these factors has a conflicting impact over a long period of time. For example, the growth rate of food production in the 1970s has a certain effect on the 1980s population, which determines the growth rate of many years of food production. Similarly, the resource consumption rate in the next few years affects both the size of the capital basis to be maintained and the number of resources left on the earth. Existing capital and reasonable resources interact with each other to determine the demand and supply of future resources.
5	22	Furthermore, each of these factors has a conflicting impact over a long period of time. For example, the growth rate of food production in the 1970s has a certain effect on the 1980s population, which determines the growth rate of many years of food production. Similarly, the resource consumption rate in the next few years affects both the size of the capital basis to be maintained and the number of resources left on the earth. Existing capital and reasonable resources interact with each other to determine the demand and supply of future resources.
42	66	Furthermore, each of these factors has a conflicting impact over a long period of time. For example, the growth rate of food production in the 1970s has a certain effect on the 1980s population, which determines the growth rate of many years of food production. Similarly, the resource consumption rate in the next few years affects both the size of the capital basis to be maintained and the number of resources left on the earth. Existing capital and reasonable resources interact with each other to determine the demand and supply of future resources.
48	69	space

2. Then, if it is available, use global data, and if global measurement cannot be performed, the relationship is as accurate as possible using a characteristic local data.

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3. Using a computer to calculate the simultaneous action of all these relationships over time. He checked the effects of the main prerequisites numerically, and found the main factors that determine the behavior of the system.

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4. Finally, we checked the following factors on the global system:

universe

Increased food yield and birth control

Evolution of global systems "evolution of various measures that are currently being provided to improve or change system behavior."

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The following are the simple explanations of this model, their goals and limits, the main contours of feedback containing them, and the quantitative evaluation of causal relationships. < SPAN> This chapter describes the global formal model used as the first step to understand this complex world system. This model is an attempt to summarize the enormous knowledge of the causal relationship between the abov e-mentioned levels and express this knowledge with the outline of feedback that connects each other. The world model is very important in understanding the causes and limits of the growth of the world system, so we will explain in more detail the process of building models.

When building a model, I mainly stepped on the four stages:

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1. First, we pointed out the important causal relationship between the five levels and traced the structure of the feedback circuit. For this reason, he focused on many knowledge of knowledge related to the problem, for example, literature, economics, agriculture, nutrition, geology, and ecology. Our goal at this first stage was to find the most basic structure that reflects the main interaction between the five levels. After a simple system was understood, we thought it would be possible to add more detailed knowledge.

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2. Then, if it is available, use global data, and if global measurement cannot be performed, the relationship is as accurate as possible using a characteristic local data.

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4. Finally, we checked the following factors on the global system:

The overshoot mode

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These stages are not always continuous, and the new information obtained later is often forced to change the main structure of the feed back loop. There are no singl e-flexible models in the world, and there are developmental models that are constantly criticized and updated as they understand.

The following are the simple explanations of this model, their goals and limits, the main contours of feedback containing them, and the quantitative evaluation of causal relationships. This chapter describes the world formal models used as the first step to understand this complex world system. This model is an attempt to summarize the enormous knowledge of the causal relationship between the abov e-mentioned levels and express this knowledge with the outline of feedback that connects each other. The world model is very important in understanding the causes and limits of the growth of the world system, so we will explain in more detail the process of building models.

When building a model, I mainly stepped on the four stages:

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universe

Evolution of global systems "evolution of various measures that are currently being provided to improve or change system behavior."

TECHNOLOGY IN THE REAL WORLD

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Technological side-effects

In this simple world model, we are only interested in the general behavior of the "population capital" system. By behavior we mean the tendency of the system's variables (such as population and pollution) to change over time. The variables can be capable of increasing, decreasing, remaining constant, fluctuating, or combining several of these characteristic modes. For example, a population growing in a constrained environment has several plausible modes for approaching the maximum carrying capacity of its environment. It can have the ability to smoothly adapt to an equilibrium below the ecological limit by gradually decreasing its growth rate, as shown below. It can also have the ability to:

Growth of a universal system

Smoothly return to the limit after exceeding it, or oscillate, as shown in the figure below. Or

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The main purpose of constructing a world model is to determine which, if any, of these behaviors become more characteristic of a universal system as the universal system reaches its emergent limits. This process of identifying patterns of behavior counts as a "prediction" only in the most limited sense of the book. The resulting graphs later in the book illustrate the importance of:

Growth of a Universal System

The world's population, money, and other variables are plotted on a time scale from 1900 to 2100. These graphs are not to be considered as precise predictions of the variable values for that year or any other year in the future. They only show trends in the behavior of the system.

The difference between different degrees of "prediction" can be illustrated by the ordinary case. If you throw a ball straight up in the air, you can predict with complete confidence how it will behave. It will rise, slowing down, change its target and fall to the ground, speeding up. You understand that it will not, in fact, continue to take off forever, nor will it start to circle the Earth, nor will it make three revolutions before landing. It is precisely this recognition of simple forms of behavior that we require from a model of the real world. If you literally wanted to predict how high a thrown ball would go, or when and where it would hit the ground, you would have to make detailed calculations based on explicit information about the ball, the height, the wind, and the force of the first throw. For example, if you wanted to predict the size of the 1993 earthquake with an accuracy of a few percent, you would need a much more complex model than the one we have described here. Nevertheless, for a universal system, you would need more explicit and absolute information than is available in real time.

Since we are only interested in cooperative behavior patterns at given boundaries, this first-world model does not necessarily need to be exhaustive. Therefore, we consider only one communal population that statistically reflects the average properties of the population. We include only one type of pollutant, long-lived and globally widespread, such as lead, mercury, asbestos, permanent pesticides, and radioisotopes.

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We are beginning to observe dynamic behavior in ecosystems. We have created the first general resource graph, which represents the sum of all non-renewable resources, but we know that each resource follows the footsteps of the communal dynamics model at its own level and speed.

In order for the model to be clear, the supplied line requires an advanced aggregation as well. At the same time, the expected information that can be expected from the model is also limited. The model has no more details and simply has a large number of details, so it cannot answer questions about details. The national character does not match. Inequality in food, resources and cash distribution is implicitly included in the data, but is not calculated in an obvious appearance and is not reflected in the weekend images. Global trade balance, immigration, climate determination, and political processes are not intentionally considered. There is a good chance that other models will be built to clarify the behavior of data from the main subsystem, and we believe that they will be built*.

Is it possible to bring out lessons from a similar model with similar granularity? Is it possible to emphasize the result? From a clear monitoring perspective, this result is meaningless. Both US population, Brazil GDP, or population, which includes the artificial scale of larg e-scale food production in 2015, cannot be literally calculated. The data we handle is obviously inadequate, even if it is given a job that organizes it. On the other hand, it is important to have the idea of the evidence of human society, the excitement and behavior of the soci o-economic system, and when these limits will reach. Human knowledge

*During this study, we owned a number of su b-models to learn detailed dynamics on some of the world models. The list of these studies is as shown in the appendix.

Growth of universal system

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Growth in the ecumenical system

Problems with no technical solutions

I don't know if it will collapse. We believe that the world's overall models actually come from a way to solve similar problems. This model uses basic problems between people, food, investment, depreciation, resources, and products. Similar things around the world are similar in any part of human society or in society as a whole. In fact, as shown at the beginning of this book, there is excellent qualities to think of these issues in a broad spatial perspective. Questions about details, individual countries, and shor t-term pressure may be much more reasonable if the shared limits and actions are clear.

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It would be useful to see the relationship in Fig. 23. Every year, the population is increased by the total number of births and decreases depending on the total number of deaths generated in that year. The absolute number of annual births depends on the average birth rate and size of the population. The number of deaths depends on the average mortality rate and total population. As long as the number of births exceeds the number of deaths, the population will increase. Similarly, if certain industrial capital operates with a certain efficiency, a certain amount of production can be increased every year. This part of this production is an increase in factories and machinery, and is an investment to increase the stock of capital goods. At the same time, some of the capital goods are depreciated or discarded every year. In order for industrial capital to continue to grow, it is necessary to increase the investment rate.

World system growth

A choice of limits

World system growth rate

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In all flowcharts such as FIG. 23, the arrow simply indicates that a variable has a specific effect on other variables. The nature and size of the influence must be clearly quantified by the model equation, but is not identified. For easy, flow diagrams often do not show that a certain causal interaction only occurs after delay. In the model calculation, the delay is explicitly considered.

The population and capital are affected by each other in various forms, but some of them are shown in Fig. 24. Part of the production of industrial capital is agricultural capital. For example, tractors, irrigation and fertilizers. The amount of agricultural capital and the area of cultivated land have a significant effect on food production. The per capita food production (the food production is divided by the population) affects the mortality rate of the population. Both industrial activities and agricultural activities cause environmental pollution. (In the case of agriculture, pollution is mainly pesticide residue, fertilizer that causes wealth, and inappropriate irrigation salt sediment). Pollution not only has a direct effect on mortality, but also has an indirect effect by reducing agricultural production. < SPAN> Chapter 1 reveals feedback loops that create population growth and capital growth. These are also shown in Fig. 23.

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Elim Poon - Journalist, Creative Writer

Last modified: 27.08.2024

This Book is in Good Condition. Typical amount of wear consistent with well used good condition books. Book has some wear to cover and binding. If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth. The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind by Donella H. Meadows; Dennis L. Meadows; Jorgen Randers; William W.

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The Limits to Growth A report for the Club of Rome s project on the predicament of mankind

The Limits to Growth: A report for the Club of Rome's project on the predicament of mankind

The Limits to Growth: A report for the Club of Rome's project on the predicament of mankind

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THE LIMITS TO GROWTH

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The MIT Project Team

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FOREWORD

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CONTENTS

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FIGURES

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TABLES

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INTRODUCTION

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CHAPTER I THE NATURE OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

THE MATHEMATICS OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

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MODELS AND EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

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WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

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WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH

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CHAPTER II THE LIMITS TO EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

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FOOD

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NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES

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