UCL Predictions Who Will Win the Champions League
Champions League Predictions: Real Madrid Now Favourites Ahead of PSG
Real Madrid is still a team with a chance, without worrying about the fascinating draw in Munich last week.
Carlo Ancelotti's team was the favorite to win La Liga, beat "Cádiz" 3-0, lost to "Barcelona" from Girona, and now they have a chance to go all out to win the Champions League / League 15 European Cup title.
The probability of beating Bayern at the Santiago Bernabéu is estimated at 67%, while the probability of "Los Blancos" drawing the final game is 37, 2%.
Madrid has not won in its last eight meetings with Bayern Munich in the Champions League (W6 D2).
However, in the last seven European Cup / Champions League semi-finals, Bayern has advanced more times than Madrid (3 times). But if Los Blancos go further, it will be the first time they have won three consecutive semi-finals in this competition (previously in 2013-14 and 2017-18).
Anchalotti has never lost any of his nine meetings with Bayern, one of his own former clubs, in the Champions League (W6 D3) - after which a 2:2 draw in the first match is the most frequent case when the coach faces a rival.
Paris Saint-Germain
Taking into account the second winner yet, PSG lost 1:0 Dortmund "Iduna Park" before the signal, but our model considers the possibility of changing history.
The probability of going to the final matchday is 48, 4%, but if they go further, only Madrid has a chance to lift the trophy.
PSG, who have not yet won the Champions League, includes odds of 21, 9%.
The French champions failed to score in two of their last 38 European matches (during which 93 goals were scored), but Bayern stayed clean in both cases (1:0 in February 2023 and April 2021).
Having beaten Barcelona in the final match with a score of 6:4, PSG had the opportunity to put on ice one team that had lost in the first match of the quarterfinals and semifinals of the Champions League and also lost in the final match.
Although Mbappe had a small number of words in the first match, he played a concrete role of 32 goals (21 goals, 11 assists) in 31 domestic champions league games. Only once in both knockout phase games could not score, and both games participated as a substitute (2017/18 Section 8 Real Madrid).
Borussia Dortmund
The BVB is 51, 6 % of the BVB in a match against PSG, but the possibility of ultimately defeating Madrid and Bayern is slightly lower than the sem i-final rival, 20, 7 %.
BVB has played against PSG three times in Europe, but all won (D1 L2) and scored no goal. In September, a major milestone this season, he lost a 2-0 score and had only one shot.
Dortmund is the largest champions league this season, with the largest difference between the match goals and the expected goal (+10, 7-9 to 19 to 19, X-match goal 7). There are only two options that have not been able to score twice while shooting twice in a match against the team led by Edin Telzic (PSG in the first match and Newcastle United in October 2023).
Jadon Sancho in the first match was impressive. This season, he is trying to do the most dribbling in the Knockout League in the Champions League (22 times).
Bayern Munich
Bavaria? In the previous section, the performance could be expected, but the team led by Thomas Tuchel would win only 39, 1 % and the trophy was 20, 2 %.
Bayern has not won Madrid for 16 consecutive games, an unusual length for rivals in the European Champions Cup and Champions League. The last Bavarian defeated Spain, in May 2001, at this stage (sem i-final, first match).
This season, Tuchel's team could not win the Champions League's 8th final (Lazio, 0 to 1) and the quarterfinals (Arsenal, 2 to 2). Since 2015/2016, Atletico has not won three consecutive games in home games. This season, he lost to Atletico Madrid in the semifinals. < SPAN> Mbappe had a small number of words in the first match, but played 32 goals (21 goals, 11 assists) in 31 domestic champions league games. Only once in both knockout phase games could not score, and both games participated as a substitute (2017/18 Section 8 Real Madrid).
The BVB is 51, 6 % of the BVB in a match against PSG, but the possibility of ultimately defeating Madrid and Bayern is slightly lower than the sem i-final rival, 20, 7 %.
BVB has played against PSG three times in Europe, but all won (D1 L2) and scored no goal. In September, a major milestone this season, he lost a 2-0 score and had only one shot.
29 April
Dortmund is the largest champions league this season, with the largest difference between the match goals and the expected goal (+10, 7-9 to 19 to 19, X-match goal 7). There are only two options that have not been able to score twice while shooting twice in a match against the team led by Edin Telzic (PSG in the first match and Newcastle United in October 2023).
The Quick Hits
- Bavaria? In the previous section, the performance could be expected, but the team led by Thomas Tuchel would win only 39, 1 % and the trophy was 20, 2 %.
- This season, Tuchel's team could not win the Champions League's 8th final (Lazio, 0 to 1) and the quarterfinals (Arsenal, 2 to 2). Since 2015/2016, Atletico has not won three consecutive games in home games. This season, he lost to Atletico Madrid in the semifinals. Although Mbappe had a small number of words in the first match, he played a concrete role of 32 goals (21 goals, 11 assists) in 31 domestic champions league games. Only once in both knockout phase games could not score, and both games participated as a substitute (2017/18 Section 8 Real Madrid).
- BVB has played against PSG three times in Europe, but all won (D1 L2) and scored no goal. In September, a major milestone this season, he lost a 2-0 score and had only one shot.
Real Madrid
Dortmund is the largest champions league this season, with the largest difference between the match goals and the expected goal (+10, 7-9 to 19 to 19, X-match goal 7). There are only two options that have not been able to score twice while shooting twice in a match against the team led by Edin Telzic (PSG in the first match and Newcastle United in October 2023).
Jadon Sancho in the first match was impressive. This season, he is trying to do the most dribbling in the Knockout League in the Champions League (22 times).
Bavaria? In the previous section, the performance could be expected, but the team led by Thomas Tuchel would win only 39, 1 % and the trophy was 20, 2 %.
Bayern has not won Madrid for 16 consecutive games, an unusual length for rivals in the European Champions Cup and Champions League. The last Bavarian defeated Spain, in May 2001, at this stage (sem i-final, first match).
This season, Tuchel's team could not win the Champions League's 8th final (Lazio, 0 to 1) and the quarterfinals (Arsenal, 2 to 2). Since 2015/2016, Atletico has not won three consecutive games in home games. This season, he lost to Atletico Madrid in the semifinals.
If they could change history, Harry Kane would reign.
Kane (29 years old), who scored a goal in an away game, approached Wayne Rounie, 30 years old.
PSG
The UEFA Champions League has been left for four teams. Does OPTA's super computer consider the team that has finished all stages to win?
rumor
According to OPTA's supercomputer, Real Madrid, who rejected Manchester City, won the Champions League.
rumor
However, 36 % of Paris Sain t-Germain is the most powerful to win to the end.
Bayern Munich
{Rumors}.
Borussia Dortmund, who plays in the best four with PSG, is considered to be the lowest possibility of trophy acquisition.
First of all, from the champion candidate. Despite having a chance to try luck in the quarterfinals with Manchester City, the 1 4-degree European champion stood at the end of the penalty.
Despite Luka Modric removing his team's first shot, Carlo Ancelotti's calmness has disappeared when it becomes a penalty spot.
Madrid will play against Bavaria, who is in a sufficient popularity in Europe, under Thomas Touhel, who has been struggling this season in Bundesliga, but has won trophy in Chelsea in 2021.
The match between Bavaria vs Real Madrid is the most effective match of the European Cup / UEFA Champions League (26 games), of which 24 games are knockout phase games, so it is still a game. The match is considered the most effective.
Borussia Dortmund
The probability of Los Blancos to win to the end is 61 %, and the probability of winning is 36, 2 %.
Most of the quarterfinals with the City, the Ancelotti team played in an aggressive defensive format, but they were also working relatively. In fact, in the Champions League of the season, Madrid scores the most directly (seven points) by direct attacks. In addition, only Copenhagen (38, 9m) has a longer average start distance than Madrid (39, 6m) among the teams that won the mass league in that year.
Madrid has not won 10 games in the Champions League this season (W7 D3). Madrid recorded only 11 games in the Champions League in the 2016/17 season.
We do not pay attention to the fact that Madrid is the team that works the most in our predictions, and only PSG includes the highest chance of going in last: this happened in 63% of 10. 000 simulations.
In the last four, Kylian Mbappé and Cos will face Borussia Dortmund, and if they beat BVB, the chances of beating Madrid or Bayern will be 29. 9%bed.
This is the fourth time that PSG has reached the Champions League semi-finals. The two previous times (with Milan in the 1994-95 season and Man City in the 2020-21 season) they lost all four games on this stage, but that was in the second half of the 2019-2019 season. They beat RB Leipzig in one game.
15 April
However, our model takes into account the possibilities at the "Iduna Park". In fact, PSG has never won at BVB's home ground, losing two of the three meetings and drawing. This will be the first time the two teams have met in the same group stage and semi-final since Dortmund did so in the 2012-13 season.
The Quick Hits
- Tuchel has a chance to leave, but some Bayern fans want revenge.
- But their failures have nothing to do with the striker of the English team. In Europe, Kane accepted a specific role in 10 Champions League goals in as many games for Bayern (7 goals, 3 programs). If he clinches or assists this IRGE, he will set a new record for the number of clinched heads with an English player in one campaign of this competition (David Beckham scored 10 goals in 1998-99 and 2001 and Steven Gerrard in 2007-08).
- However, in the past seven games with Madrid, Bayern has not won six wins and one loss. This is an unusual length for Bavaria in competition with rivals in Europe.
Manchester City
This is the eighth time between Bayern and Madrid in the European Cup / Champions League semifinals. Since then, Bayern has won four out of the first five games on this stage from 1976 to 2012, but has lost one of the last two games (2013-14, 2017-18). 。
The last space is-BVB, if you say the possibility of the title.
The possibility of winning the Champions League this season is only 14, 2 %, and the finish is 37 %.
Dortmund's average number of goals per game is the highest among the teams that left the Champions League this season (18 goals in 10 games). However, from the quality of the shot, Dortmund has scored 10 points less than expected in the tournament (conversely, 8 out of 18xg-Personal goal is not counted).
Predictions and Stats
Champions League Stats Hub
In addition, BVB has not won the last 10 games, the longest period in the Champions League (W6 D4). Man City (31), Bayern (15) and Madrid (12).Barcelona
This is the fourth time that the BVB has entered the Champions League semifinals, and two out of the past three (1996-97, 2012-13) have advanced to the finals.
However, PSG has won only one in six competitions with this team (D3 L2), and dropped 2: 1 in the first match of the 2019/20 Champions League, and then 3: 2. Is losing.
Prior to the Champions League quarterfinal Second Leg, test the updated monitoring of the OPTA Super Computer.
{RUCE}
Real Madrid
The away match against Real Madrid ended in a 3-3 draw, but according to OPTA's supercomputer, Manchester City is the winner of the tournament.
{rumor}.
Barcelona, who won the outward match with Paris Sain t-Germain, was the second most popular European winner with a 18 % probability.
{Membership}
PSG, which was one of the champion candidates, reduces the possibility of acquiring trophy, and is now only 5 %.
Arsenal
A late goal from Federico Valverde denied City a comfortable win over Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu last Tuesday, but they remain favourites to win the Champions League, according to the supercomputer Opta.
City beat Madrid at the Etihad Stadium after a 1-1 draw in last year's semi-finals. The 4-0 defeat against the reigning champions was perhaps their best performance under Pep Guardiola.
They have a 64. 9% chance of repeating that performance on Wednesday and reaching the last four. City have won all three of their previous home games against Madrid, beating Los Blancos 2-1 in 2020 and 4-3 in 2022.
A win would see them face Arsenal in an All-England match. City have a 46. 5% chance of reaching the final at Wembley Stadium. Defending the European crown, something only Madrid has managed since the league was renamed in 1992, happens in 31. 1% of our simulations of the tournament.
Atlético Madrid
11 months ago Peter McKeever
Barca was undoubtedly the main winner of the first leg of the quarter-finals. A three-pointer from Rafinha and a goal from Andreas Christensen saw the Catalans beat Paris Saint-Germain 3-2 in the French capital and secure first place before returning to Catalonia.
Before the first match, the supercomputer gave Barcelona a 43% chance of reaching the semi-finals and a 9% chance of finishing in fifth place, the favorite to win.
Bayern Munich
But now, they are in the top four in 76. 5% of simulations of the tournament. They may need to beat Atlético Madrid in the semi-finals.
The last time Barça won a major European trophy was in 2015, Xavi's final game. We give Barça an 18. 4% chance of winning in Xavi's final game as manager.
Madrid may not have been able to extend their lead away to City, but you can never write off Carlo Ancelotti's team, who saw a 5-3 lead quickly disintegrate in the 2022 Bernabéu semi-final.
But beating the champions at the Etihad is an entirely different prospect, with Madrid reaching the semi-finals in only 35. 1% of our simulations of the competition.
PSG
In the last 10 editions of the Champions League, Madrid have only made it twice and failed to win their first game at home. Both victories came against Manchester United (quarter-final in 1999-2000 and in the round of 16 final in 2012-13).
If Madrid continues to win, they have a 23. 4% chance of reaching the final and a 15% chance of winning their 15th European Cup.
The fact that Madrid are the third favourite to win, despite having to go to the Etihad, is a testament to their strength.
Arsenal, who were favourites to win against Bayern in the opening game, were reminded last week of the experience of the Bundesliga giants at the highest level.
Borussia Dortmund
Harry Kane kept chasing the Hungarians at the Emirates Stadium, scoring his sixth goal in all competitions and Serge Gnabry was turned away at the door. Thanks to a knock from Leandro Trossard, Arsenal ended up with a 2:2 draw.
But after this draw in North London, Arsenal's chances of exiting the semi-finals are 48% - more than 10% lower than before the first game.
The chances of 'Armsmith' reaching the final are 15, 1%, and the fact that even if they manage to bypass Bayern, they will have to face 'Man City' or 'Real' in the semi-finals does not help. Their chances of lifting their first European trophy are 8, 3%, 5 points lower than last week.
8 April
'Atlético', which has been growing since last week as a favorite for the Champions League quarter-finals, is now the fourth favorite.
Who Will Win the Champions League? The Quick Hits
- Nevertheless, Atleti has a 4 out of 65 chance of reaching the final with a 26, 4% chance of reaching the final, which is the third best indicator among all the teams remaining in the tournament, after the semi-final "Bar" of City and potential rivals.
- However, as in the case of Arsenal, the uncertainty of reaching the last four, combined with the fact that the favorites are waiting for "City" or "Madrid", means that only 15% of the simulations performed by our supercomputer result in "Bayern" reaching the final.
- Another plus for Bavaria is that Dortmund has been dismissed as the most successful team in Germany.
Manchester City
By the way, it was a little falling for PSG. Last week, they were regarded as the second candidate for the champions League championship along with Madrid's Real Madrid.
Now that he lost to Barcelona with a 3 to 2 score at home, their possibility of winning to 5, 8 % has fallen.
The probability that the situation will improve in the return match with Barcelona is 23, 5 %, but in this case, there are only 13 or 8 % of the probability of the Lewis Enrique team beat Atletico and Dortmund.
Of course, Nadizida always uses Killian Mbappe, but OPTA's supercomputer does not complain.
Real Madrid
Regarding Dortmund, I got a chance because Atletic lost in the first round. Sebastian Harra's scored in the second half, approaching the Simeone team with a on e-goal difference.
The possibility of turning to the top four on Tuesday is 35 %, and the possibility of proceeding to the Wembley final in early June is 14, 4 %.
However, the possibility of advance to the final tournament is very low, only 5 %.
The final stage of the UEFA Champions League has already begun, but according to the supercomputer "Opta", which club is listed as a candidate?
{space}
Manchester City, who has to fight Madrid's Real in the quarterfinals, is a candidate for 28, 3 % of the odds and has maintained its crown.
Paris Saint-Germain
{space}
Real Madrid and Paris Sain t-Germain will continue on the list, but if Blancos wins the city, it will be clearly a candidate for the championship.
{space}
Bavarian's hope was substantially shattered by the Bundesliga championship, and Harry Kane could end the first season in Germany without trophy. The probability of a Bavarian giant wins only 6 or 2 %.
Arsenal
If the seed proposal in the next version of the Champions League, which starts next season, was a reality, the two teams of the championship would probably never met in the finals. However, in the current method, Man City and Real Madrid will play in the quarterfinals.
The city is eager to grow Madrid in the semifinals in 2022 and 2023, and the city is growing in this series with a 2: 1 score.
Despite the fact that the city has actually contributed to 14 European champions, the Guardiola team has hope to capture trophy: this is actually a favorite. , 28 and 3 %, actually 13 %, higher than that of other teams.
The probability of such a thing is actually 60 % of records for "City" to the semifinals, and the possibility of reaching the end of the third for the four seasons is 41, 41,. 2 %.
Citi "The next winner" was slightly overtaken by PSG in Real Madrid. The European Monolis, Karlo Ancelotti, has a 15 % possibility of winning the Champions League in the 2023-24 season.
Barcelona
During this season, Madrid was second to scores only 26 minutes. -The less in the Champions League.
Vinissius Junior is a terrible person. Since the 2021-22 campaign began, he has undergone a specific role with more headings than any of the Champions League players (27-14 headings, 13 programs).
In any case, the ideal dribbling (97) and the number of effective programs (373) are still the top of all players.
Jad Belingham scored (4) or assisted (4) in Real Madrid's Champions League in all six games.
Borussia Dortmund
Such "Los Brancos" odds draw a 40% OP to overcome the city with two two collisions, and the end of 2024 is 23, 8%.
As a result, only our model, where Real Madrid can draw with the owner, regards PSG as one of the best varieties. This possibility suggested 14, 7 % of the Parisian European champions, and they became one of the main beneficiaries of the drawing that fell on another side of "Big 4" in March. 。
In the best eight, the card seems to be on the card that the former Club Lewis Enrique, Barcelona, he led to victory in the 2015 Champions League. Considering that Killian Mbappe scored 4 goals in the Champions League against Balsa (this index exceeds only Thomas Müller and Andrey Chef Chenko), PSG is a major probability (57 %), and the sem i-finals vs. "Atletico Madrid" You will be in "Atletico Madrid" or "Dortmund Borusia".
And if Athlete and Dortmund leak out beyond the "grate", PSG will have more than once in three times (35, 9 %) until the end of this season (35, 9 %).
Bayern Munich
But it is worth avoiding. Not only PSG, but also the harshest defeat in the Champions League, and in 2017 he lost 6: 1 Barcelona in Camp Know. Browgran, which was cooked by Lewis Enrique at the time, has achieved 4: 0 in the first match of the Best 16 Series.
Gansmis has a chance to lead the Champions League with all the leads in the Premier League. Currently, only Arsenal (185) will perform live without victory in the Champions League situation.
In the quarterfinals, we meet Gunner's Bavaria, of course, that you have the chance to lose Kane's own rivals. The British national captain marked 14 goals in 19 Arsenal. In his professional career, he scores after Leicester (20 goals) and Everton (16 points).
Atlético Madrid
Kane is also a record holder, along with Diogo Shoto and Jamie Bardi, in the number of heads at Emirates Stadium (5 times).
Michelle Artyet Michelle's team is a winner who blame Kane in another campaign without trophy: Our model assigns 58 or 5 % of the best four. Finally, the possibility of issuing Arsenal is determined by 22, 9 %.
This is the first game of Arsenal in the 2009-10 Champions League quarterfinals, when they lost to Barcelona Guardiola in 6 scores: 3 2 meetings. UEFA's European Cup/ Champions League Arsenal only for the current day of the seven quarte r-finals held in 2 wax.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
Now we have come across a specific coefficient, and Barcelona is the fifth winner with a 9 % coefficient.
The probability of flowing "PSG" is 43 %, and the possibility of such a thing to the end is 24, 6 %. Again, the relatively fit lots play their own role, as we could avoid playing against Man City and Real Madrid.
The match between Barcelona and PSG has been since the Champions League quarterfinals in August 2020.