Weekly Trader's Outlook

Thanks to the relatively smooth speech of Powell Chair in the morning, the promotion is increasing every week. In the rising week, on Wednesday, interest is focused on Nvidia's popular settlement reports.

The Week That Was

If you read last week's blog, you'll recall that this week's Artel Base Monitoring was "slightly bullish." At the time of writing this note (east time 13:45), for example, S & Amp; amp; p 500 increased by 1, 0%weekly. Apart from this, SPX increased the significant decline yesterday,~1. 5 % from the peak to the hollow, I actually talked about the possibility of the reversal I read last week. By the way, the index later jumped back a relatively "pigeon" letter from the chairman of the Jerome-Powell US Federal Reserve (hereinafter referred to as the "Economic Data, Gambling and FRS" section). Ta. The fact that time acted to change politicians, Powell's letter, first, has a marke t-sensitive market field as a Russell 2000 index (+ 3, 09 % in real time). 。 I actually take into account that SPX is already tattered, and this is definitely an ecstatic.~SPX has already risen 10 % from the lowest value on August 5, and seems to have not yet overcome the seasonal impact of the buds related to August and September. Apart from this, SPX is completely appreciated by forward P / E at 21. 5 levels, which has the ability to make the auxiliary rise in achieving auxiliary rise without expecting to actually increase profits. It is a field to increase the profit at least (10 % this year) profits.~10 % of this year's rise, the economy will be more smooth, and the federal preparation system will be in a easing system (that is, will not fight the Fed). < SPAN> The promotion is increasing every week, thanks to the relatively smooth speech of Powell in the morning. In the rising week, on Wednesday, interest is focused on Nvidia's popular settlement reports.

Outlook for Next Week

If you read last week's blog, you'll recall that this week's Artel Base Monitoring was "slightly bullish." At the time of writing this note (east time 13:45), for example, S & Amp; amp; p 500 increased by 1, 0%weekly. Apart from this, SPX increased the significant decline yesterday,1. 5 % from the peak to the hollow, I actually talked about the possibility of the reversal I read last week. By the way, the index later jumped back a relatively "pigeon" letter from the chairman of the Jerome-Powell US Federal Reserve (hereinafter referred to as the "Economic Data, Gambling and FRS" section). Ta. The fact that time acted to change politicians, Powell's letter, first, has a marke t-sensitive market field as a Russell 2000 index (+ 3, 09 % in real time). 。 I actually take into account that SPX is already tattered, and this is definitely an ecstatic.SPX has already risen 10 % from the lowest value on August 5, and seems to have not yet overcome the seasonal impact of the buds related to August and September. Apart from this, SPX is completely appreciated by forward P / E at 21. 5 levels, which has the ability to make the auxiliary rise in achieving auxiliary rise without expecting to actually increase profits. It is a field to increase the profit at least (10 % this year) profits.

10 % of this year's rise, the economy will be more smooth, and the federal preparation system will be in a easing system (that is, will not fight the Fed). Thanks to the relatively smooth speech of Powell Chair in the morning, the promotion is increasing every week. In the rising week, on Wednesday, interest is focused on Nvidia's popular settlement reports.

If you read last week's blog, you'll recall that this week's Artel Base Monitoring was "slightly bullish." At the time of writing this note (east time 13:45), for example, S & Amp; amp; p 500 increased by 1, 0%weekly. Apart from this, SPX increased the significant decline yesterday,

• SPX has already risen 10 % from the lowest value on August 5, and seems to have not yet overcome the seasonal impact of the buds related to August and September. Apart from this, SPX is completely appreciated by forward P / E at 21. 5 levels, which has the ability to make the auxiliary rise in achieving auxiliary rise without expecting to actually increase profits. It is a field to increase the profit at least (10 % this year) profits.
• At the time of writing this note (eastern time 14:05), all major stock indices have risen (DJI + 350, SPX + 46, COMP + 205), reaching the maximum day of the day that reached Powell concert. do not have. Curiosity to show the strength of the ruts in other markets (+3, 11 %) that are sensitive to market interest rates (real estate is the most profitable section today), it is basically "Rotation Trade Is it for me to think about whether or not it will resume? In the right week, you can understand this. Either way, I have some decisions when trying to build an appropriate weekly monitoring. In the first place, not pay attention to the fact that SPX is about 1 % away from the past high, and the bears with yesterday's bay are forced to be the most cautious (for this) Learn in detail in the "technical analysis" section). In addition, the Wednesday signal will publish a report on Nbidia's quarterly profit. I believe that the possibility of such a direct thing will actually be higher than 50 %, the next increase/ increase, but there is a possibility of surveillance each time (for example, shortage. The effect of increasing or possibility
• What actually changes my prediction? Yesterday's SPX's "bearish" candle was probably such a warning, but the Fed supports the idea of ​​lowering the bet, we are all at all stages that "everything is already evaluated". In fact, the possibility has led to a decline in the right week.
• Finance:
• Monday (August 26): Applications for lon g-term u s-Products

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• income
• Monday (August 26): PDD Holdings (PDD), Heico Corp (HEI), Trip. com Group (TCOM)

Economic Data, Rates & the Fed:

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• This week's main event was the morning performance of Jerome Powell Fed Fed at the economic symposium held at Jackson Hall. Powell has announced to the market that it is time for policy adjustment and interest rate reduction. And, for the common practice of the Fed, Powell added: "The conditions and interest rates of interest cut are determined by the balance of the data, the progress of the visibility, and the risk." This message has been enhanced by recognizing that the Fed is a set with an increase in the reduction of employment growth risks. Due to the possibility of market interest rate, this message was almost as expected, but the stock price after the announcement responded positively. In addition to Jackson Hall, this week, economic data supported a healthy US economy was announced. The following is the data announced this week:
• Space} Samp & amp ;; amp; p manuafactoring PMI: 48. 0, expected value 49. 6, lower than the previous indicator 49. 6.

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SAMP; fp; P service industry PMI: 55. 2 for expected 54. 0, slightly higher than the previous value 55. 0.

Technical Take

S&P 500 Index (SPX + 30 to 5,600)

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Number of new housing sales: 739 thousands, up 10, 6 % yea r-o n-month, exceeding the expected 624 thousand houses. The increase of 10. 6 % from the previous month is a significant increase since August 2022.

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PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX + 116 to 5,203)

The number of unemployment benefits applications: 232, 000 cases, slightly higher than expected 230, 000, exceeding 228, 000 last week. The number of unemployment benefits was 1, 863 million, which exceeded the last week's indicator of 1, 859 millions (downward revisions), lower than the Economist's expected to be 1, 870 million.

Number of new housing sales: 739 thousands, up 10, 6 % yea r-o n-month, exceeding the expected 624 thousand houses. The increase of 10. 6 % from the previous month is a significant increase since August 2022.

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Market Breadth:

This week, the profits of bonds did not decrease due to the influence of Powell's lecture. The yield on annual government bonds fell from 4, 054 % last Friday to 3, 93 %, and the yield on 1 0-year government bonds was 3, 812 %, 3, 892 % last Friday.

This week, the market expectations that the Fed will be relatively likely to take interest in interest has been a certain season, facing a relatively compressed letter from Chair Powell. The possibility of 50 basis points a month rose from 30 % last Friday to 33 %, exceeding yesterday 25 %. In real time, we expect 75-100 Basis points by the end of the year.

The SPX index rose 10 % from the smallest day (5 119) to the maximum day (5. 643) yesterday (5. 643). In the first place, assert that average reversal is not unusual in consideration of progress speed. In addition, I believe that the price effect of yesterday and the present is at least the highest probability. Yesterday, SPX flew to at least 0 or 5 % of his past maximum value (5. 667), but after closing the minimum session. For this reason, the chart was formed with a bear candle (see the figure below). And now, the index rises, which looks very uncertain (that is, within the minimum of sessions in noon). However, until I demonstrate that the index is actually ready to reach a new historical highest, I think it is actually a necessary moment, I am in the research camp. Remaining, we now have no choice but to see where to close. Shor t-term technical translation: Small bears

Source: Thinkorswim trading platform

Previous characteristics are not considered the key to future results. < SPAN> Atlanta's second quarter GDP was revised down to 2. 0%last Friday, and this level was maintained this week (next Thursday, the second year of the second year of the second quarter GDP. Scheduled to be announced, the bulletin value is 2. 8%).

This week, the profits of bonds did not decrease due to the influence of Powell's lecture. The yield on annual government bonds fell from 4, 054 % last Friday to 3, 93 %, and the yield on 1 0-year government bonds was 3, 812 %, 3, 892 % last Friday.

More from Charles Schwab

Today's Options Market Update

This week, the market expectations that the Fed will be relatively likely to take interest in interest has been a certain season, facing a relatively compressed letter from Chair Powell. The possibility of 50 basis points a month rose from 30 % last Friday to 33 %, exceeding yesterday 25 %. In real time, we expect 75-100 Basis points by the end of the year.

Looking to the Futures

The SPX index rose 10 % from the smallest day (5 119) to the maximum day (5. 643) yesterday (5. 643). In the first place, assert that average reversal is not unusual in consideration of progress speed. In addition, I believe that the price effect of yesterday and the present is at least the highest probability. Yesterday, SPX flew to at least 0 or 5 % of his past maximum value (5. 667), but after closing the minimum session. For this reason, the chart was formed with a bear candle (see the figure below). And now, the index rises, which looks very uncertain (that is, within the minimum of sessions in noon). However, until I demonstrate that the index is actually ready to reach a new historical highest, I think it is actually a necessary moment, I am in the research camp. Remaining, we now have no choice but to see where to close. Shor t-term technical translation: Small bears

Shorting Stocks in Your Investment Strategy

Source: Thinkorswim trading platform

Related topics

Previous characteristics are not considered the key to future results. Atlanta's second quarter GDP under the supervision of FRS was revised downward to 2. 0%last Friday, and this level was maintained this week (next Thursday, the second year of learning results for the second quarter GDP will be announced. Scheduled, 2. 8%of the bulletin values).

This week, the profits of bonds did not decrease due to the influence of Powell's lecture. The yield on annual government bonds fell from 4, 054 % last Friday to 3, 93 %, and the yield on 1 0-year government bonds was 3, 812 %, 3, 892 % last Friday.

This week, the market expectations that the Fed will be relatively likely to take interest in interest has been a certain season, facing a relatively compressed letter from Chair Powell. The possibility of 50 basis points a month rose from 30 % last Friday to 33 %, exceeding yesterday 25 %. In real time, we expect 75-100 Basis points by the end of the year.

The SPX index rose 10 % from the smallest day (5 119) to the maximum day (5. 643) yesterday (5. 643). In the first place, assert that average reversal is not unusual in consideration of progress speed. In addition, I believe that the price effect of yesterday and the present is at least the highest probability. Yesterday, SPX flew to at least 0 or 5 % of his past maximum value (5. 667), but after closing the minimum session. For this reason, the chart was formed with a bear candle (see the figure below). And now, the index rises, which looks very uncertain (that is, within the minimum of sessions in noon). However, until I demonstrate that the index is actually ready to reach a new historical highest, I think it is actually a necessary moment, I am in the research camp. Remaining, we now have no choice but to see where to close. Shor t-term technical translation: Small bears

Source: Thinkorswim trading platform

Previous characteristics are not considered the key to future results.

The SOX index rose 14 % to SPX, from daytime low prices on August 5 to hig h-day hig h-day, yesterday. However, the index was hit directly by the 5 0-day pure moving average (SMA) resistance. Another orange flag on the mediu m-term chart is a double top pattern that occurred in June and July. RSI's negative divergence occurs when the new price level (in this case, SOX) reaches the relatively low RSI high. I know that the rise in NVDA is made in an appropriate environment, and we know that it is more likely to have a significant impact on shor t-term SOX target values, but so far SOX is on the 50th of SMA. Technical is not able to return to to to. Shor t-term technical analysis: somewhat bearish

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Past results do not guarantee future results.

The Bloomberg Chart below indicates the percentage of each index of S & Amp; Samp; p 500 (SPX), Nasdaq General (CCMP), and Russell 2000 (RTY) above the 20 0-day moving average. I am. In other words, the promotion was slightly active this week, and at least the S & Amp; Samp; P 500 index and the Nasdaq Comprehensive Index finally expanded slightly. Compared to the previous week, SPX (white line) from 73, 40%to 75, 55%, CCMP (blue line) from 43, 52%to 44, 74%, RTY (red line) for 58, 29%to 57, It fell to 70%.

Source: Bloomberg

The width of the market is to reflect the role of individual promotions throughout the index, which helps to convey the driving force and weakness of movement and price fluctuations. Generally, the higher the role, the healthier the psychology and the advantageous technical reasons. There are many data points that help reflect the width of the market, such as the consistency of rising and falling, a lon g-term movement average, new height and new low.

Featured 52 weeks high this week (115th): Aflac Ink (AFL + 0, $ 33 → $ 106, $ 94), Burlinton Store's Ink (BURL + 6, $ 30 → $ 274, $ 50), CAVA Group Ink (CAVA + 17, $ 30 → 119, $ 38), D. R. Horton ink (DHI + 5, $ 45 → 191, 19), HCA Holdings Ink (HCA + 3, $ 65 → $ 386, 77, 77, 77) ・ Ink (ISRG + 0, $ 91 → $ 77). (HCA+3, 65, $ 386, $ 77), Inttion Surgical Ink (ISRG+0, $ 91 → $ 491, $ 34), trade desk ink (TTD+1, $ 76 → $ 104, $ 93) , Universal Health Service Ink (UHS+1, $ 83 → 231, $ 12)

The minimum value of 52 weeks tolerated from this week (today 15): Arch-Resources-Ink (arch-88 to $ 118, 45), Fennec-Farmashuticals-Ink (Fenc-$ 0, 19 to $ 5) , 37), GROCRY Outlet Holding-Corporation (GO + $ 0, 09 ~ $ 17, 80), IRHYTHM Technology Co., Ltd. (IRTC + $ 1, 27 to $ 66, 75), Netes-Ink (NTES-$ 11, 73 to $ 80, 86), Singular-Genomics-Systems-Ink (OMIC + $ 0, 31 to $ 6, 95 ), Walgreens-Boots-Alliance-Ink (WBA-$ 0, 27 to $ 10, 12).

What is i t-how to trade with Schwab?

The Power Powell Chair of the U. S. Federal Reserve (FRB) has the opportunity to give the market a highly potential idea of ​​falling interest rates at 10:00 am in the eastern time. 。 Promotion and bonds cut the share of loss on Thursday the night before his concert.